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7th Apr 2025 11:06UKDaily Monitor

  • We still think tariffs will be stagflationary eventually, as countries retaliate and boost government spending.
  • But the balance of risks has shifted to recession after President Trump doubled down over the weekend.
  • We cut 2025 GDP growth to 0.7% but leave our rate forecasts unchanged, waiting for clarity on headlines.

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Keywords for: 8 April 2025 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence