27 March 2025 US Monitor Costs of high uncertainty clear in March regional Fed services surveys

• Regional Fed surveys suggest that services sector activity, hiring and investment is slowing sharply.
• The message on inflation is mixed, but firms expect their pricing power to wane. 
• February’s orders report provides further signs the recovery in equipment investment is already fading.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

26 March 2025 US Monitor A consumer slowdown looks more likely than an imminent recession

• The consumer surveys have deteriorated sharply, but probably overstate the incoming slowdown.
• Air passenger numbers are 4% below their peak, matching the drawdown before the 2001 recession...
• ...But similar declines also were seen in 2005 and 2006, without recession immediately ensuing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, Feb.

Providing some reassurance on service sector activity.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, February

 Manufacturing recovery already showing signs of fading.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, January

Net trade set to drag heavily on growth amid a pre-tariff surge in imports.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, January

Stronger growth in underlying orders unlikely to last much longer.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, January

Sales still struggling for momentum.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, January

Home sales set to slump in Q1.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, February 15

DOGE layoffs not a big issue for claims just yet.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US FOMC Minutes, January 28/29

Waiting for more disinflation progress to ease again.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, January

The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, February

Reality bites for homebuilders.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Empire State Manufacturing Survey, February

Encouraging, but far from definitive.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

18 February 2025 US Monitor January's weak retail sales due to much more than just bad weather

• Adverse weather likely explains only part of the steep drop in retail sales in January.
• The rush of spending on durable goods in anticipation of new tariffs already is showing signs of fading.
• …That sets the stage for much slower growth in consumers’ spending in Q1.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, January

The pre-tariff sales boom already is fading.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, January

Manufacturing output held back by adverse weather; surveys point to a brief growth spurt ahead.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, February 8

Low claims highlight lack of near-term pressure for Fed easing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, January

Post-Trump euphoria already starting to fade.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, February

Tariffs worries continue to weigh on confidence.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Productivity, Q4

Cost pressures from the labor market remain relatively benign.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US