Tentative signs of improvement, but still weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Import stockpiling likely to resume; equipment investment probably weak again in Q4.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Mostly a hurricane story, but sales probably will remain weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Still weak, with no recovery likely anytime soon.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Hurricanes weigh on single-family starts, but the underlying trend is flat.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The softening in the labor market remains very gradual.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Consistent with a core PCE print on the 0.2-to-0.3% borderline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
October's improvement mostly reflects politics.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Core retail sales usually struggle after hurricanes, and warm weather likely weighed on clothing sales.
- Carryover from Q3 will support growth in consumption in Q4, but expect slower gains from here.
- Credit conditions remain very restrictive, as banks have continued to tighten lending standards.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Consumers in high spirits pre-election.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Weak October payrolls were only partly due to strikes and storms.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Weakness in the sector extends well beyond Boeing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Hit to payrolls from Milton likely was limited.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Probably not the start of a strong recovery.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Solid growth unlikely to prevent a November easing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
No reason to change payroll forecasts, given ADP's poor record
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Strong growth in consumption drove another solid expansion in headline GDP in Q3.
- But household are running out of steam, and the cracks are starting to show in investment spending.
- Claims today are unlikely to tell us much about Milton’s likely impact on the October jobs report.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We think GDP grew by 3.5% in Q3, underpinned by another solid increase in consumers’ spending.
- But growth probably will slow sharply over the next few quarters, as households start to tire.
- The core PCE deflator likely rose by just 2.0%, and underlying inflation is set to remain in check.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Underlying investment demand is still weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Probably a high watermark for new home sales.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
