PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, August 2025

The outlook for homebuilding remains grim. 

19 August 2025 US Monitor Steady import prices imply the US is bearing all the cost of new tariffs

• Foreigners are not “paying” for President Trump’s tariffs: pre-tariff import prices are holding steady…
• …That leaves US consumers and businesses shouldering nearly all of the additional costs.
• Homebase data point to a rebound in private payrolls, but likely give a misleading signal.

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, August 9

 Stable but subdued.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, July 2025

 Collapsing response rate casts doubt, but the backdrop looks weak.

12 August 2025 US Monitor A jump in auto sales probably will obscure underlying retail weakness

• We look for a 1% gain in headline retail sales in July, mostly due to a rebound in auto sales…
• …But underlying sales likely were relatively weak again, with control sales volumes broadly stagnating.
• We think consumers' spending will grow by ½-to-1% in Q3, in keeping with the subdued pace in H1.

PM Datanote: US Productivity, Q2 2025

Flattered by GDP distortions in Q2, but the underlying trend still is solid.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, July 2025

Probably a false alarm on services inflation.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, July 2025

A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline.

PM Datanote: US Personal Incomes & Spending, June 2025

Core inflation set to climb further as spending barely grows.

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, June

Going nowhere fast.

PM Datanote: US Advance GDP, Q2

Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.