US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Consistent with a 0.2% core PCE print; the momentum was in non-PCE components.
Samuel TombsUS
Fed in little hurry to slash rates, for now.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The CPI points to a benign 0.2% rise in the core PCE deflator; the strength was in non-PCE components.
- The rise in import prices earlier this year lifted core goods prices, but the outlook for both is fine.
- Services disinflation continues; a further fall in wage growth in 2025 will return overall core inflation to 2%.
Samuel TombsUS
- Some FOMC participants preferred a 25bp move last month, suggesting a gradual approach for now...
- ...But worse data in the coming months probably will push the Fed to ease rapidly by the turn of the year.
- Hurricanes Helene and Milton will make the data hard to read, but are unlikely to change Fed policy.
Samuel TombsUS
Tight credit still weighing heavily on small companies.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The FOMC minutes probably will show a consensus behind gradual and data-dependent rate cuts.
- Recent data suggest a 25bp move is most likely in November, but we see sharper cuts further ahead.
- Credit conditions tightened for small companies in September, highlighting monetary policy’s long lags.
Samuel TombsUS
- Upside risk for the September core CPI from sources including hotel room rates and auto insurance.
- Tickets for sports event probably leapt too; NFL admission costs 9% more this season.
- JD Power data point to rising prices for used autos; import prices flag a break from core goods deflation.
Samuel TombsUS
Low response rate suggests jump in payrolls very likely to be revised away.
Samuel TombsUS
- The scope for another downward revision to payrolls is high, given the low response rate in September.
- The dip in the unemployment rate is statistically insignificant; reliable surveys point to a rising trend.
- A 25bp easing in November remains a good bet, but labor market data will force a faster pace thereafter.
Samuel TombsUS
Still consistent with further falls in services inflation.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Boosted marginally by Boeing; expect a further uplift from Hurricane Helene ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Payrolls likely rose by only 135K in September, constrained by slow private and government hiring.
- Initial claims have been distorted by iffy seasonals; unemployment won’t track the drop in continuing claims.
- October private job growth will be close to zero, if strikes at Boeing and the ports continue next week.
Samuel TombsUS
Indicators with a better track record paint a much weaker picture.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a small rise in initial claims to about 225K, from 218K, driven by rolling furloughs at Boeing.
- Storm Helene likely will lift claims to about 250K soon; port-related disruption may add to the pick up.
- The end of the student loan payment “on-ramp” will only hit annual consumption by 0.15% at most.
Samuel TombsUS
Still depressed; core goods prices likely to keep falling.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Supply chains have enough flex for a one-week ports strike to have only a negligible impact on GDP...
- ...But a more protracted walkout would weigh greatly on the manufacturing and retail sectors.
- Manufacturing and residential construction payrolls both look likely to decline in the coming months.
Samuel TombsUS
- Only NFIB, Conference Board and Indeed data predict jobs growth better than a
six-month average.
- Collectively, these indicators point to a 115K rise in September private payrolls and a 135K in total NFP.
- The unemployment rate likely edged up; the recent fall in continuing claims is not indicative of the trend.
Samuel TombsUS
Net trade probably only a small drag on headline growth in Q3.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The latest batch of data for August have led us to lift our forecast for Q3 GDP growth to 2.5%, from 2.0%.
- Households’ saving rate has been revised up sharply, but the stock of liquid assets still looks low.
- Further labor market weakening will depress income growth and prompt many households to save more.
Samuel TombsUS
