US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- An exceptionally cold January likely weighed heavily on housing starts and building permits last month...
- ...but the underlying trend in residential construction activity seems to be softening too.
- CPI food inflation is set to rise further, even if the President decides against substantial new tariffs.
Samuel TombsUS
- Adverse weather likely explains only part of the steep drop in retail sales in January.
- The rush of spending on durable goods in anticipation of new tariffs already is showing signs of fading.
- …That sets the stage for much slower growth in consumers’ spending in Q1.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The pre-tariff sales boom already is fading.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Manufacturing output held back by adverse weather; surveys point to a brief growth spurt ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Low claims highlight lack of near-term pressure for Fed easing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Disinflation still on track; consistent with 2.6% core PCE inflation, down 0.2pp from December.
Samuel TombsUS
Seasonals still failing to offset new year price rises; February data will reassure the FOMC.
Samuel TombsUS
- PPI and CPI data signal a 0.28% m/m rise in the core PCE deflator and a 0.2pp fall in the inflation rate.
- Inflation likely will be close to 2% by year-end absent more tariffs; labor cost pressures are still easing.
- We look for a sharp fall in manufacturing output in January, driven by adverse weather.
Samuel TombsUS
Post-Trump euphoria already starting to fade.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Seasonal adjustment has evolved too slowly to offset greater clustering of annual price rises in January.
- Underlying services inflation continues to fall; leading indicators point to further progress.
- Surges in CPI auto insurance and hospital services prices will not feed through to the core PCE deflator.
Samuel TombsUS
- Headline retail sales were probably held back by a plunge in auto sales linked to supply-bottlenecks...
- ...but underlying sales likely were strong again, as tariff threats encouraged pre-emptive purchases.
- Mr. Powell's Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony was unremarkable, but watch for post-CPI comments today.
Samuel TombsUS
- Manufacturers have hiked prices to game pre-tariff demand, but prices for autos and clothing likely fell.
- Revisions to the seasonals should temper the residual seasonality in the services price data.
- New tariffs on steel and aluminum will have minimal impact on overall inflation.
Samuel TombsUS
Tariffs worries continue to weigh on confidence.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Positive near-term revisions offset the subpar January print; a March easing is off the table.
Samuel TombsUS
- The recent upward inflexion in payroll growth likely will be tempered by revisions...
- ...But January’s numbers likely were depressed by bad weather; expect a better print in February.
- A mid-year slowing in payroll growth still looks likely, but we now look for the FOMC’s next easing in June
Samuel TombsUS
Cost pressures from the labor market remain relatively benign.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Trend still low for now; leading indicators paint a mixed picture.
Samuel TombsUS
Underlying services inflation still likely to decline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Underlying services inflation still likely to decline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Poor track record suggests ADP’s resilient picture should be disregarded.
Samuel TombsUS
