US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Global Daily Monitor Datanotes Samuel Tombs
Sentiment improving, but mortgage rates remain too high for demand to recover materially.
Samuel TombsUS
Bouncing back after a poor H1, but Q3’s momentum will not be sustained.
Samuel TombsUS
- Real goods spending likely leapt by 6.3% in Q3, the most for six quarters, but slower growth beckons.
- Labor income growth is slowing, while savings income will fall; hurricanes will not boost overall sales.
- The latest jobless claims data are still consistent with a big hit to October NFP from strikes and hurricanes.
Samuel TombsUS
- Weak Visa spending data and falling hours worked signal unchanged headline September retail sales.
- The Boeing strike and Hurricane Helene likely pushed up jobless claims again last week.
- Strikes at Boeing probably also weighed heavily on manufacturing output in September.
Samuel TombsUS
- Healthcare and education payrolls together are nearly one million below their pre-Covid trend path...
- ...But healthcare job postings have fallen sharply; S&L governments lack funds to hire many more teachers.
- Consumers perceive the highest chance of missing a debt payment since April 2020; lenders will take note.
Samuel TombsUS
Consistent with a 0.2% core PCE print; the momentum was in non-PCE components.
Samuel TombsUS
- The CPI points to a benign 0.2% rise in the core PCE deflator; the strength was in non-PCE components.
- The rise in import prices earlier this year lifted core goods prices, but the outlook for both is fine.
- Services disinflation continues; a further fall in wage growth in 2025 will return overall core inflation to 2%.
Samuel TombsUS
- Some FOMC participants preferred a 25bp move last month, suggesting a gradual approach for now...
- ...But worse data in the coming months probably will push the Fed to ease rapidly by the turn of the year.
- Hurricanes Helene and Milton will make the data hard to read, but are unlikely to change Fed policy.
Samuel TombsUS
- The FOMC minutes probably will show a consensus behind gradual and data-dependent rate cuts.
- Recent data suggest a 25bp move is most likely in November, but we see sharper cuts further ahead.
- Credit conditions tightened for small companies in September, highlighting monetary policy’s long lags.
Samuel TombsUS
- Upside risk for the September core CPI from sources including hotel room rates and auto insurance.
- Tickets for sports event probably leapt too; NFL admission costs 9% more this season.
- JD Power data point to rising prices for used autos; import prices flag a break from core goods deflation.
Samuel TombsUS
Low response rate suggests jump in payrolls very likely to be revised away.
Samuel TombsUS
Boosted marginally by Boeing; expect a further uplift from Hurricane Helene ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Payrolls likely rose by only 135K in September, constrained by slow private and government hiring.
- Initial claims have been distorted by iffy seasonals; unemployment won’t track the drop in continuing claims.
- October private job growth will be close to zero, if strikes at Boeing and the ports continue next week.
Samuel TombsUS
Indicators with a better track record paint a much weaker picture.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a small rise in initial claims to about 225K, from 218K, driven by rolling furloughs at Boeing.
- Storm Helene likely will lift claims to about 250K soon; port-related disruption may add to the pick up.
- The end of the student loan payment “on-ramp” will only hit annual consumption by 0.15% at most.
Samuel TombsUS
- Supply chains have enough flex for a one-week ports strike to have only a negligible impact on GDP...
- ...But a more protracted walkout would weigh greatly on the manufacturing and retail sectors.
- Manufacturing and residential construction payrolls both look likely to decline in the coming months.
Samuel TombsUS
- Only NFIB, Conference Board and Indeed data predict jobs growth better than a
six-month average.
- Collectively, these indicators point to a 115K rise in September private payrolls and a 135K in total NFP.
- The unemployment rate likely edged up; the recent fall in continuing claims is not indicative of the trend.
Samuel TombsUS
- The estimated increase in real GDP since Q4 2019 has been revised up to 10.7%, from 9.4%.
- August PCE data will point to continued strength in consumers’ spending, but slower growth likely looms.
- We look for a 0.14% August core PCE print, slightly below the consensus.
Samuel TombsUS
- Survey measures of investment intentions point to a weak August durable goods report...
- ...But for now, solid investment in computers and transportation is offsetting broader weakness.
- Seasonally adjustment issues point to another low initial claims print; the labor market is still worsening.
Samuel TombsUS
- We see limited macro implications if Democrats keep the White House...
- ...But split control of Congress likely would mean a slight tightening in fiscal policy, given current plans.
- A Trump victory risks higher inflation and rates, and weaker growth, especially if GOP sweeps Congress.
Samuel TombsUS
