US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Samuel Tombs
- February’s rise in Homebase education jobs was small only because January’s fall was relatively mild.
- The broad-based jump in Challenger job cuts shows clear cracks are forming in the labor market.
- Trade data likely miscount a surge in gold imports; revisions will result in a smaller net trade hit to GDP.
Samuel TombsUS
- The near-3% annualized decline in GDP forecast by the Atlanta Fed’s model is far too downbeat.
- Consumption will recover in February and GDPNow likely is misinterpreting the surge in gold imports.
- The ADP and ISM services employment indicators are both unreliable guides to payrolls.
Samuel TombsUS
Still set for decent spending growth in Q1 overall, but a slowdown looms further ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 175K increase in February payrolls, despite the slightly weaker steer from surveys.
- The weather hit on January jobs likely unwound, and it’s too soon to see federal layoffs in the data.
- Homebase data look alarming, but they are too skewed towards hospitality to be a useful barometer.
Samuel TombsUS
- Tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico would boost the headline PCE deflator by 0.5%.
- Our calculation assumes trade flows shift and manufacturers and retailers absorb some of the costs.
- We see little risk of workers obtaining bigger wage rises in response; services disinflation will continue.
Samuel TombsUS
- January’s fall in consumption was due to residual seasonality, bad weather and auto-specific issues.
- A February rebound is signalled by timely data on auto sales, consumer lending and restaurant visits.
- A mid-year lull in spending, as real income growth slows, is more likely than a sudden stop in Q1.
Samuel TombsUS
Heavy snowfall mostly to blame for the rise.
Samuel TombsUS
- Real consumption likely fell by about 0.2% in January; adverse weather played a role...
- ...but the sharp fall in confidence points to a sustained rise in the saving rate back above 4%.
- Services sector investment intentions are also losing their shine amid renewed political uncertainty.
Samuel TombsUS
Finally smelling the coffee.
Samuel TombsUS
- CPI core goods inflation will rise to 2% soon, from zero, if the latest manufacturing surveys are right...
- ...But we see little sign of cost pressures besides the China tariffs, which at most entail a 1pp uplift.
- January headline durable goods orders likely were strong, but we see renewed weakness ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Industrial stocks have discounted the recovery in manufacturing suggested by recent surveys...
- ...But we think this apparent upturn reflects a rush of pre-tariff activity that will be short-lived.
- February’s Conference Board survey provided more evidence of consumer gloom.
Samuel TombsUS
- The total federal government payroll probably is on course to be around 200K smaller by October.
- Lost incomes and greater uncertainty point to a bigger 300K total hit to aggregate payroll growth.
- Monetary policy still is meaningfully restrictive, despite the pick-up in M2 growth.
Samuel TombsUS
Decision-making on hold until the federal policy outlook becomes clearer.
Samuel TombsUS
- The S&P PMI points to growth in final sales to private domestic purchasers slowing to just 2% in Q1.
- The PMI was too gloomy during the first trade war, but tariff and federal spending risks are bigger now.
- Tariff threats also are driving consumers’ confidence lower and inflation expectations higher.
Samuel TombsUS
GROWTH IN SPENDING & PAYROLLS TO SLOW MID-YEAR…
- …FALLING SERVICES INFLATION TO OFFSET THE TARIFF BOOST
Samuel TombsUS
- The core CPI-PCE inflation gap likely increased to 0.7pp in January; the relatively big gap will last.
- Tariffs and rising auto insurance premiums will boost the CPI more than the PCE deflator.
- Existing home sales probably dropped in January, marking the start of a sharp fall in Q1 overall.
Samuel TombsUS
- Average temperatures and snow cover were in line with seasonal norms last week, unlike in January.
- Homebase data point to weak February payrolls, but they have become a poor guide; wait for better data.
- Expect a low claims print today, but this week’s bad weather and DOGE job cuts will boost claims soon.
Samuel TombsUS
- An exceptionally cold January likely weighed heavily on housing starts and building permits last month...
- ...but the underlying trend in residential construction activity seems to be softening too.
- CPI food inflation is set to rise further, even if the President decides against substantial new tariffs.
Samuel TombsUS
Disinflation still on track; consistent with 2.6% core PCE inflation, down 0.2pp from December.
Samuel TombsUS
Seasonals still failing to offset new year price rises; February data will reassure the FOMC.
Samuel TombsUS
