US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Samuel Tombs
- The core CPI likely rose by 0.3% in October, driven by used auto prices and hotel room rates.
- Underlying services inflation, however, probably continued to decline; rent inflation likely cooled too.
- November's CPI data should reassure the FOMC that it can ease policy again at next month's meeting.
Samuel TombsUS
- Chair Powell emphasised that the elections would have little bearing on December's policy decision...
- ...Labor market data will support a further 25bp easing; more to come in 2025, but fiscal policy will be key.
- The Fed has little to fear from unit labor costs, even after the latest upward revisions.
Samuel TombsUS
Boosted partly by temporary supply chain disruption; core services inflation is still falling.
Samuel TombsUS
- Labor market data are weak enough for the FOMC to ease by another 25bp today...
- ...But tariffs likely will keep core PCE inflation above 2%, so we now look for more gradual easing in 2025.
- Much of Mr. Trump’s agenda, however, will depress GDP growth, keeping the terminal rate low.
Samuel TombsUS
- Donald Trump’s migration plans would hit growth in GDP and employment and likely push up inflation...
- ...But his campaign’s most extreme proposals for mass deportations seem unlikely to materialize.
- Ending election spending will depress consumption growth this winter, but leave jobs largely unaffected.
Samuel TombsUS
- We think that a 10pp jump in the effective tariff rate would boost the core PCE deflator by about 0.8pp.
- The experience of past tariffs suggests exporters will maintain prices and retailers absorb little of the cost.
- Inflation expectations are above target-consistent levels; the Fed can’t ignore the tariffs this time.
Samuel TombsUS
- The latest claims data suggest the hit to NFP from Hurricanes Helene and Milton was relatively small.
- September’s hefty rise in the core PCE deflator will be a blip; October’s storm-related boost will be small.
- Job market loosening points to lower core inflation in 2025, but Mr. Trump’s tariffs would upend that story.
Samuel TombsUS
- Both the job postings-to-unemployment ratio and the quits rate are now well below pre-Covid levels.
- ADP’s data has a poor record of capturing the hit to private payrolls from hurricanes.
- September’s jump in the trade deficit was due to inventory accumulation; Q3 GDP growth will be strong.
Samuel TombsUS
Pick-up probably election-related; spending growth unlikely to keep strengthening.
Samuel TombsUS
Larger deficit driven by stockpiling in preparation for the port strikes.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 100K rise in October non-farm payrolls; surveys show the trend in private payrolls is slowing.
- Strikes likely cut payrolls by about 40K; the hit from Hurricane Milton is less certain, but 25K is plausible.
- Homebase data show employment in Florida was lower than usual throughout the week.
Samuel TombsUS
Weakness due to high mortgage rates, not hurricanes or the approaching elections.
Samuel TombsUS
- The boost to claims from Helene likely faded last week, but the impact of Boeing disruption likely grew.
- Expect to see the peak impact of Hurricane Milton in today’s data, lifting headline claims to about 270K.
- Don’t attempt to forecast October payrolls using today’s PMI report; other indicators are better.
Samuel TombsUS
- The average coupon rate for corporate bonds will continue to climb as maturing bonds are refinanced.
- Small businesses remain reliant for external finance on banks, which are continuing to increase spreads.
- Helene likely had a minor impact on existing home sales last month, which we think were little changed.
Samuel TombsUS
Sentiment improving, but mortgage rates remain too high for demand to recover materially.
Samuel TombsUS
Bouncing back after a poor H1, but Q3’s momentum will not be sustained.
Samuel TombsUS
- Liquid assets matter more for spending than total wealth; most households now hold less than usual.
- The top 20% of the income distribution still has ample liquid assets, but threats to their income loom.
- We see a few factors preventing lower rates from providing a big boost to residential construction.
Samuel TombsUS
THE LABOR MARKET WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER...
- ...LOW INFLATION WILL ENABLE A NIMBLE FED RESPONSE
Samuel TombsUS
- Real goods spending likely leapt by 6.3% in Q3, the most for six quarters, but slower growth beckons.
- Labor income growth is slowing, while savings income will fall; hurricanes will not boost overall sales.
- The latest jobless claims data are still consistent with a big hit to October NFP from strikes and hurricanes.
Samuel TombsUS
- Weak Visa spending data and falling hours worked signal unchanged headline September retail sales.
- The Boeing strike and Hurricane Helene likely pushed up jobless claims again last week.
- Strikes at Boeing probably also weighed heavily on manufacturing output in September.
Samuel TombsUS
