US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- We estimate the core PCE deflator rose by 0.36% in February, lifting the inflation rate to 2.8%, from 2.6%.
- Markets expect 75bp of FOMC easing in 2025, but most members will keep projecting 50bp next week.
- Forward-looking components of the PPI, however, suggest services inflation will slow further this year.
Samuel TombsUS
- A plunge in airline fares tempered the rise in the core CPI, but the core PCE deflator likely rose by 0.3%.
- Services disinflation will resume; the contribution of rent to core inflation will be 0.5pp lower by end-year...
- ...That will offset the uplift from 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, keeping core CPI inflation stable at 3%.
Samuel TombsUS
- January Job postings still above summer 2024 levels; no sudden changes in federal postings…
- …But Indeed new postings are down 7% since the inauguration, and layoff indicators have jumped.
- Small businesses plan to continue squeezing wage rises this year; services inflation will fall further.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 0.3% increase in the February core CPI, but the risks are skewed towards a 0.2% print.
- Used vehicle prices likely fell sharply; it’s too soon to see a big uplift to goods prices from tariffs on China.
- Weakening demand for air travel and hotels likely restrained the increase in overall services prices.
Samuel TombsUS
A snapshot of a prior age, before the shift in federal government policies undermined confidence.
Samuel TombsUS
- February payroll growth was in line with the trend; the downward skew in revisions has ceased…
- …But the jump in economic policy uncertainty is starting to weigh on hiring and firing decisions.
- Federal worker layoffs and fading catch-up growth in healthcare jobs will aggravate the slowdown.
Samuel TombsUS
Challenger data point to a big rise in claims this spring.
Samuel TombsUS
Providing some reassurance on service sector activity.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Why use a broken compass when you have GPS?
Samuel TombsUS
- February’s rise in Homebase education jobs was small only because January’s fall was relatively mild.
- The broad-based jump in Challenger job cuts shows clear cracks are forming in the labor market.
- Trade data likely miscount a surge in gold imports; revisions will result in a smaller net trade hit to GDP.
Samuel TombsUS
- The near-3% annualized decline in GDP forecast by the Atlanta Fed’s model is far too downbeat.
- Consumption will recover in February and GDPNow likely is misinterpreting the surge in gold imports.
- The ADP and ISM services employment indicators are both unreliable guides to payrolls.
Samuel TombsUS
Still set for decent spending growth in Q1 overall, but a slowdown looms further ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 175K increase in February payrolls, despite the slightly weaker steer from surveys.
- The weather hit on January jobs likely unwound, and it’s too soon to see federal layoffs in the data.
- Homebase data look alarming, but they are too skewed towards hospitality to be a useful barometer.
Samuel TombsUS
Manufacturing recovery already showing signs of fading.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico would boost the headline PCE deflator by 0.5%.
- Our calculation assumes trade flows shift and manufacturers and retailers absorb some of the costs.
- We see little risk of workers obtaining bigger wage rises in response; services disinflation will continue.
Samuel TombsUS
Net trade set to drag heavily on growth amid a pre-tariff surge in imports.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- January’s fall in consumption was due to residual seasonality, bad weather and auto-specific issues.
- A February rebound is signalled by timely data on auto sales, consumer lending and restaurant visits.
- A mid-year lull in spending, as real income growth slows, is more likely than a sudden stop in Q1.
Samuel TombsUS
Heavy snowfall mostly to blame for the rise.
Samuel TombsUS
Stronger growth in underlying orders unlikely to last much longer.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Sales still struggling for momentum.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
