US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Samuel Tombs
Seasonals still failing to offset new year price rises; February data will reassure the FOMC.
Samuel TombsUS
- PPI and CPI data signal a 0.28% m/m rise in the core PCE deflator and a 0.2pp fall in the inflation rate.
- Inflation likely will be close to 2% by year-end absent more tariffs; labor cost pressures are still easing.
- We look for a sharp fall in manufacturing output in January, driven by adverse weather.
Samuel TombsUS
- Seasonal adjustment has evolved too slowly to offset greater clustering of annual price rises in January.
- Underlying services inflation continues to fall; leading indicators point to further progress.
- Surges in CPI auto insurance and hospital services prices will not feed through to the core PCE deflator.
Samuel TombsUS
- Headline retail sales were probably held back by a plunge in auto sales linked to supply-bottlenecks...
- ...but underlying sales likely were strong again, as tariff threats encouraged pre-emptive purchases.
- Mr. Powell's Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony was unremarkable, but watch for post-CPI comments today.
Samuel TombsUS
- Manufacturers have hiked prices to game pre-tariff demand, but prices for autos and clothing likely fell.
- Revisions to the seasonals should temper the residual seasonality in the services price data.
- New tariffs on steel and aluminum will have minimal impact on overall inflation.
Samuel TombsUS
Positive near-term revisions offset the subpar January print; a March easing is off the table.
Samuel TombsUS
- The recent upward inflexion in payroll growth likely will be tempered by revisions...
- ...But January’s numbers likely were depressed by bad weather; expect a better print in February.
- A mid-year slowing in payroll growth still looks likely, but we now look for the FOMC’s next easing in June
Samuel TombsUS
Trend still low for now; leading indicators paint a mixed picture.
Samuel TombsUS
Poor track record suggests ADP’s resilient picture should be disregarded.
Samuel TombsUS
- Output per hour rose an impressive 2.3% in 2024; surveys point to higher IT spending by firms in 2025.
- AI spending, however, poses near-term downside risks to employment and more disinflation pressure.
- Mixed signals on federal spending so far, but DOGE likely will drag slightly on demand and employment.
Samuel TombsUS
Labor demand still deteriorating, amid tight monetary policy and elevated uncertainty.
Samuel TombsUS
- March 2024 payrolls likely will be revised down by about 670K after benchmarking to UI records...
- ...The birth-death model’s contribution to payroll growth since then probably will be revised down too.
- We see some evidence of tariff “front-running” in December trade data; expect a lot more to come.
Samuel TombsUS
- Job openings are still trending down; catch-up growth in healthcare hiring is fizzling out.
- JOLTS net hiring in December was more muted than payroll growth; January jobs will probably disappoint.
- Auto sales likely were hit by bad weather in January: pre-tariff purchases probably have further left to run.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 125K increase in January payrolls, well below the 170K consensus.
- Survey indicators present an incoherent picture, but unusually cold weather likely hit employment.
- The small fall in continuing claims points to a stable unemployment rate, but the risks are to the upside.
Samuel TombsUS
A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable.
Samuel TombsUS
- The tariffs imposed by Mr. Trump will lift consumer prices by 0.6%, if they are maintained.
- Recent strong growth in consumption can be largely attributed to preemptive purchases of imports.
- A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable; expect sub-2% GDP growth soon, as consumption growth slows.
Samuel TombsUS
Continuing claims consistent with flat unemployment in January.
Samuel TombsUS
- GDP rose by 2.3% in Q4, and measures of underlying momentum were even stronger...
- ...But growth is now extremely dependent on consumption, which likely will slow markedly from here.
- Expect a modest 0.8% rise in the Q4 ECI today, and smaller increases over coming quarters.
Samuel TombsUS
- Chair Powell said revisions to the FOMC’s statement were “not meant to send a signal”.
- We’re revising our Q4 GDP growth forecast to 1.5%, from 2.0%, due to weak trade and inventories data.
- Federal government payrolls could easily drop by between 100K and 200K by October.
Samuel TombsUS
- We think GDP rose by around 2% in Q4, driven mainly by another strong increase in consumption.
- Tariffs muddy the waters, but we expect growth to be much weaker this year than in 2024.
- The FOMC is unlikely to signal less easing after only one month’s better than expected labor market data.
Samuel TombsUS
