US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Probably a high watermark for new home sales.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Boost from Milton underwhelms, while claims elsewhere drop back.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Weakness due to high mortgage rates, not hurricanes or the approaching elections.
Samuel TombsUS
- Expect an aircraft-driven plunge in durable goods orders in September, but some core weakness too.
- Demand for investment equipment was soft in Q3, outside the aircraft and computer components.
- The latest jobless claims data offer mixed messages on October payrolls, but we expect a weak print.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The boost to claims from Helene likely faded last week, but the impact of Boeing disruption likely grew.
- Expect to see the peak impact of Hurricane Milton in today’s data, lifting headline claims to about 270K.
- Don’t attempt to forecast October payrolls using today’s PMI report; other indicators are better.
Samuel TombsUS
- The average coupon rate for corporate bonds will continue to climb as maturing bonds are refinanced.
- Small businesses remain reliant for external finance on banks, which are continuing to increase spreads.
- Helene likely had a minor impact on existing home sales last month, which we think were little changed.
Samuel TombsUS
- Energy inflation likely will be little affected by Milton and Helene, food inflation will rise slightly eventually.
- But the case for a marked rise in core inflation is pretty slim, given the historical record.
- The main exception for October probably is the risk of a jump in prices for lodging away from home.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
New residential construction likely to flatline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Sentiment improving, but mortgage rates remain too high for demand to recover materially.
Samuel TombsUS
Bouncing back after a poor H1, but Q3’s momentum will not be sustained.
Samuel TombsUS
- Liquid assets matter more for spending than total wealth; most households now hold less than usual.
- The top 20% of the income distribution still has ample liquid assets, but threats to their income loom.
- We see a few factors preventing lower rates from providing a big boost to residential construction.
Samuel TombsUS
Boeing strike weighs on an already struggling sector.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Helene and strikes obscure the underlying trend.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
THE LABOR MARKET WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER...
- ...LOW INFLATION WILL ENABLE A NIMBLE FED RESPONSE
Samuel TombsUS
- Real goods spending likely leapt by 6.3% in Q3, the most for six quarters, but slower growth beckons.
- Labor income growth is slowing, while savings income will fall; hurricanes will not boost overall sales.
- The latest jobless claims data are still consistent with a big hit to October NFP from strikes and hurricanes.
Samuel TombsUS
- Weak Visa spending data and falling hours worked signal unchanged headline September retail sales.
- The Boeing strike and Hurricane Helene likely pushed up jobless claims again last week.
- Strikes at Boeing probably also weighed heavily on manufacturing output in September.
Samuel TombsUS
- Healthcare and education payrolls together are nearly one million below their pre-Covid trend path...
- ...But healthcare job postings have fallen sharply; S&L governments lack funds to hire many more teachers.
- Consumers perceive the highest chance of missing a debt payment since April 2020; lenders will take note.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a near-zero change in October payrolls; Boeing and Milton likely will each subtract about 50K.
- Similar storms have cost more jobs, but we expect a small hit as Milton arrived midway in the survey week.
- Daily Homebase data show only a small blow to employment on Monday and Tuesday, before Milton hit.
Samuel TombsUS
Consumers remain relatively upbeat.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
