PM Datanote: US PPI: Goods disinflation continues; margins and other services still sticky

Goods disinflation continues; margins and other services still sticky.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US FOMC Minutes, March

Some downside growth risks recognized, but attention still mostly on inflation

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US CPI, March

Ouch. June is now a much longer shot.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

8 April 2024 US Monitor No softening yet in job growth, but Q2 likely will be very different

• The initial March jobs numbers were even stronger than Homebase implied, but things can change…
• ...We’re sticking to our base-case view that payroll growth will slow markedly in the second quarter.
• Monetary tightening works with long lags, and multiple indicators now point to slower hiring and rising layoffs.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Jobless Claims, March 30

Edging up, despite generous seasonals.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending/Trade, February

Core prices back on track; real after-tax income growth slowing sharply

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

1 April 2024 US Monitor Core PCE back on track following the January jump

• February’s subdued core PCE price data support the idea that January’s spike was a one-time fluke.
• Consumption is on track for a 2% gain in Q1, down from 3.3% in Q4, and real income growth is slowing
• A modest uptick in ISM manufacturing is a decent bet, but the sector remains weak.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US