Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

PM Datanote: US GDP, Q3 Advance Estimate

Solid growth unlikely to prevent a November easing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, October

No reason to change payroll forecasts, given ADP's poor record

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

1 November 2024 US Monitor Claims tentatively point to a modest hit to payrolls from hurricanes

  • The latest claims data suggest the hit to NFP from Hurricanes Helene and Milton was relatively small.
  • September’s hefty rise in the core PCE deflator will be a blip; October’s storm-related boost will be small. 
  • Job market loosening points to lower core inflation in 2025, but Mr. Trump’s tariffs would upend that story.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, October

Pick-up probably election-related; spending growth unlikely to keep strengthening.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, September

Larger deficit driven by stockpiling in preparation for the port strikes.

Samuel TombsUS

28 October 2024 US Monitor Slow growth in October jobs will be more than a Boeing and Milton story

  • We look for a 100K rise in October non-farm payrolls; surveys show the trend in private payrolls is slowing.
  • Strikes likely cut payrolls by about 40K; the hit from Hurricane Milton is less certain, but 25K is plausible.
  • Homebase data show employment in Florida was lower than usual throughout the week.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, October 19

Boost from Milton underwhelms, while claims elsewhere drop back.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, September

Weakness due to high mortgage rates, not hurricanes or the approaching elections.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, October

New residential construction likely to flatline. 

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, October

Sentiment improving, but mortgage rates remain too high for demand to recover materially.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, September

Bouncing back after a poor H1, but Q3’s momentum will not be sustained.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US CPI, September

Consistent with a 0.2% core PCE print; the momentum was in non-PCE components.

Samuel TombsUS

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U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,