US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Hurricanes weigh on single-family starts, but the underlying trend is flat.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The "DOGE" target of $2T savings is ludicrous, but spending cuts could offset some of the tax cuts.
- Lower fiscal multipliers for tax cuts than for tariff rises and spending cuts also point to a small GDP boost.
- Seasonal adjustment will depress today's jobless claims data; expect a slightly rising trend this winter.
Samuel TombsUS
- Florida payrolls fell modestly in October, suggesting that the national trend is running close to 100K.
- We are sticking to our forecast for a 250K rebound in November payrolls, consistent with a slowing trend.
- October's drop in housing starts was weather-driven, but the outlook for residential investment is dim.
Samuel TombsUS
- Homebase and other data point to private job growth of about 200K between September and November...
- ...Implying a rebound after October's hurricane hit; we expect 225K private/250K headline in November.
- October housing starts likely were hurricane-hit; homebuilders' optimism about 2025 looks ill-judged.
Samuel TombsUS
Flat ex-Boeing and ex-storms; the trend will remain weak next year.
Samuel TombsUS
Constrained by hurricanes and falling prices; real consumption still likely to grow briskly in Q4.
Samuel TombsUS
- Markets now see a 60% chance of a 25bp easing in December, down from 80% before the election...
- ...But October state-level payroll data, due Tuesday, likely will reignite concerns about labor demand.
- Early evidence points to a muted rebound in payrolls and a below-trend increase in the CPI in November.
Samuel TombsUS
PCE components rose rapidly; on course for a 0.30% core PCE increase
Samuel TombsUS
The softening in the labor market remains very gradual.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Consistent with a core PCE print on the 0.2-to-0.3% borderline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- October CPI and PPI data imply that the core PCE deflator increased by 0.30%, the most since March...
- ...But the rise was driven by volatile airline fares, a hot patch for the stock market and catch-up rent rises.
- The Boeing strike and hurricanes probably weighed down manufacturing output last month.
Samuel TombsUS
October's improvement mostly reflects politics.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Over half of the 0.3% increase in the core CPI was due to rent, which Chair Powell has de-emphasized.
- CPI auto insurance prices likely will rebound in November, but airline fares prices probably will fall back.
- The jump in used auto prices is liable to reverse soon; core goods prices will continue to trend down.
Samuel TombsUS
- Core retail sales usually struggle after hurricanes, and warm weather likely weighed on clothing sales.
- Carryover from Q3 will support growth in consumption in Q4, but expect slower gains from here.
- Credit conditions remain very restrictive, as banks have continued to tighten lending standards.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The core CPI likely rose by 0.3% in October, driven by used auto prices and hotel room rates.
- Underlying services inflation, however, probably continued to decline; rent inflation likely cooled too.
- November's CPI data should reassure the FOMC that it can ease policy again at next month's meeting.
Samuel TombsUS
Consumers in high spirits pre-election.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Weak October payrolls were only partly due to strikes and storms.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Chair Powell emphasised that the elections would have little bearing on December's policy decision...
- ...Labor market data will support a further 25bp easing; more to come in 2025, but fiscal policy will be key.
- The Fed has little to fear from unit labor costs, even after the latest upward revisions.
Samuel TombsUS
Boosted partly by temporary supply chain disruption; core services inflation is still falling.
Samuel TombsUS
- Labor market data are weak enough for the FOMC to ease by another 25bp today...
- ...But tariffs likely will keep core PCE inflation above 2%, so we now look for more gradual easing in 2025.
- Much of Mr. Trump’s agenda, however, will depress GDP growth, keeping the terminal rate low.
Samuel TombsUS
