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8th Jan 2025 11:31USDaily Monitor

  • Option pricing indicates markets will move sharply today if payrolls deviate much from the consensus...
  • ...But payrolls have become noisier as the response rate has declined; trends take six months to emerge.
  • Auto sales have been lifted by storms, tariff talk and a dip in auto loan rates; expect sales to falter mid-year.

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Keywords for: 10 January 2025 US Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence