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24th Feb 2025 12:05USDaily Monitor

  • The total federal government payroll probably is on course to be around 200K smaller by October.
  • Lost incomes and greater uncertainty point to a bigger 300K total hit to aggregate payroll growth.
  • Monetary policy still is meaningfully restrictive, despite the pick-up in M2 growth.

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Keywords for: 25 February 2025 US Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence