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25th Nov 2024 12:17USDaily Monitor

  • Payrolls usually have been a better guide to the final GDP estimate one quarter ahead than current GDP... 
  • ...So the outlook for Q4 GDP likely is better signalled by the Q3 slowing in payrolls than still-strong GDP.
  • Q4 consumption likely started strongly in October, but fading income growth is a troubling omen. 

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Keywords for: 26 November 2024 US Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence