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2nd Apr 2025 09:40USDaily Monitor

  • The average effective tariff rate will jump to 22%, from 3%, if Mr. Trump follows through on his plans.
  • We now look for a tariff uplift to the core PCE deflator of about 1¼%, half a point more than our prior assumption.
  • The outlook for capex and exports is worse too, but fiscal and monetary policy can offset some damage.

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Keywords for: 4 April 2025 US Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence