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4th Nov 2024 09:55USDaily Monitor

  • We think that a 10pp jump in the effective tariff rate would boost the core PCE deflator by about 0.8pp.
  • The experience of past tariffs suggests exporters will maintain prices and retailers absorb little of the cost.
  • Inflation expectations are above target-consistent levels; the Fed can’t ignore the tariffs this time.

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Keywords for: 5 November 2024 US Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence