Pantheon Publications

UK Datanote: UK MPC Decision and Minutes, November 2025

• In one line: Dovish hold, so we are comfortable with our call for a December cut. 

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, October 2025

• In one line: Firms brush off Budget uncertainty, and steady growth should keep the MPC on hold.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Eurozone, September 2025

In one line: Q4 will be better, we think.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Taiwan, October 2025

• In one line: Probably the boost from the autumn moon festival.

EZ Datanote: Construction PMI, Eurozone, October 2025

In one line: Terrible, but also a terrible leading indicator.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, September 2025

In one line: Up less in Q3 than Q2.

Global Datanote: Bank Negara Malaysia Decision, October 2025

• In one line: Resilience to US tariffs, give no reason to cut rates.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Negara Malaysia Decision, November 2025

• In one line: Resilience to US tariffs, give no reason to cut rates.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, September 2025

In one line: Underwhelming, but we see further gains in early Q4.

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 6 November 2025: Japan's full-time wage growth slows

Full-time regular pay growth slowed a tad
Real wages extended their decline in September

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 November 2025

No slow-moving crash, but the honeymoon in Vietnamese exports is clearly over
Ignore the softest sales print in a year
Outright transport deflation will return

Global Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, November, 2025

• In one line: Cautious COPOM holds steady amid uncertainty.

PM Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, November, 2025

• In one line: Cautious COPOM holds steady amid uncertainty.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, October 2025

Likely sending a false alarm on services inflation.

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, October 2025

• In one line: Predictable correction after the strongest September in five years, the underlying trend is up.

7 November 2025 US Monitor How worrying is the surge in layoff announcements?

• The relationship between Challenger job cut announcements and actual layoffs has loosened lately...
• ...WARN filings are a better leading indicator; they also rose in October, but to a smaller extent.
• We agree with the consensus that break-even payroll growth is about 50K, but for first estimates its 100K.

7 November 2025 LatAm Monitor BCB stands pat, showing caution on inflation; Banxico cuts, as expected

• The COPOM held the Selic at 15%, reaffirming its hawkish stance amid slow disinflation and global risk.
• Inflation expectations continue to ease, but the Board stressed patience and vigilance before any rate cut…
• …That first cut is now likely delayed to January as the BCB prioritises credibility and inflation convergence.

7 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's export bonanza is over, but US payback is no one-way street

• Vietnamese exports disappointed in October, but the payback from US front-loading isn’t one-way.
• BNM held rates as the economy remains resilient to US tariffs; the new trade deal will enhance this.
• Taiwan’s inflation ticked up in October, probably lifted by mid-autumn festival spending.

7 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ consumption growth decent in Q3; German industry underwhelms

•  EZ retail spending growth slowed to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.8% in Q2…. 
• ....but overall consumption growth likely was decent, and we look for more of the same in Q4. 
• Rebound in German manufacturing was tepid in September, but output likely rose again in October.

7 November 2025 UK Monitor We reiterate our call for a cut in December then rates on hold

• The MPC’s new guidance leaves us comfortable reiterating our call for a December rate cut.
• Rate-setters also point to a slower pace of cuts next year as Bank Rate approaches neutral…
• ...And room for only one more cut after December, unless GDP growth turns out weaker-than-expected.