Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Rise in surplus propped up by trade with EU partners.
Negative sales readings in the Philippines are imminent, at this rate
- Export growth in Vietnam disappointed again in November, as US shipments continue to flail…
- …Overall downside risks are receding though, and the Q4 data point to still-healthy GDP growth.
- Inflation in Taiwan eased sharply in November to 1.2%, but purely due to high base effects.
- Immigration has slowed sharply this year, but the labor force likely still is growing, slowly.
- The recent upward creep in unemployment implies labor demand has slowed by more than supply.
- Higher unemployment will squeeze wage growth and keep the pressure on the FOMC to continue easing.
- German industry enjoyed a strong start to Q4 and points to a solid October for EZ industry.
- French and German construction data suggest EZ construction also had a decent October.
- The first investor sentiment gauge for December, while subdued, still implies upside risk to EZ GDP.
- We expect CPI inflation to drop to 3.5% in November, from 3.6% in October.
- A month-to-month fall in food prices and base effects from duty hikes in 2024 will drag inflation lower.
- Our forecast for headline CPI inflation in November sees it 10bp higher than the MPC expects.
- Food deflation softened Colombia’s inflation, but sticky services and indexation are delaying disinflation.
- A widening external deficit and volatile financing flows underscore Colombia’s rising vulnerabilities.
- Minimum-wage pressures and firm domestic demand reinforce BanRep’s high-for-longer policy stance.
- China’s December Politburo meeting yesterday signalled greater confidence in the near-term outlook...
- ...allowing renewed focus on long-term structural issues as well as near-term demand support.
- Exports rose 5.9% year-over-year in November, thanks to demand from non-US markets.
In one line: Ending the year on a slightly more cheerful note.
Politburo signals urgency to stabilise domestic demand
Chinese exports resume solid growth to non-US markets
Japanese wages lifted by bonuses
In one line: Up sharply; autos yet to reverse fall in August.
Soft September sets for stage for more consumer weakness in Q4.
- In one line: Inflation stays contained, supporting a rate cut this month.
In one line: Revised up despite another drag from net trade.
- In one line: Revised up despite a drag from net trade.
In one line: Orders rise again, boosted by major orders.
In one line: Spanish industry outperforms its French counterpart early in Q4.
- In one line: Not buying 8%-plus growth either, but taking the chance before CPI mean-reverts.
RBI not buying 8%-plus growth either, but taking the chance before CPI mean-reverts
Already-low food inflation in the Philippines continues to backslide
- Chaotic pre-Budget tax-hike speculation shifts the risk to our growth forecasts to the downside.
- The Chancellor’s decision to increase fuel duty from September 2026 raises our 2027 inflation forecast.
- We expect the MPC to cut in December and hold in 2026, but are close to adding an April 2026 cut too.
