THE RUSH TO BEAT STAMP-DUTY CHANGES PEAKS...
- ...BUT HOUSE PRICES SHOULD STILL RISE BY 4% IN 2025
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Holding at a 46-month low, but will rise again soon; Swiss retaliation to US tariff hikes poses an upside risk.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Holding at a 46-month low, but will rise again soon; Swiss retaliation to US tariff hikes poses an upside risk.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
China likely to step up fiscal and monetary policy support, allow weaker RMB, in response to hefty US tariff hike;
Caixin services activity rises
Duncan WrigleyChina+
ADP distracts more than it informs.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The average effective tariff rate will jump to 22%, from 3%, if Mr. Trump follows through on his plans.
- We now look for a tariff uplift to the core PCE deflator of about 1¼%, half a point more than our prior assumption.
- The outlook for capex and exports is worse too, but fiscal and monetary policy can offset some damage.
Samuel TombsUS
- USMCA compliance shields Mexico, for now, as tariff risks shift to non-aligning sectors.
- The US tariff war creates winners in LatAm, as Asia bears the brunt, but collateral damage is a threat.
- Faltering sentiment and tight financial conditions are weighing on Brazil’s industrial sector.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- China will seek to prop up domestic demand in response to the US tariff hikes…
- …But this won’t mitigate the hit to growth fully, so we cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.4pp, to 4.0%.
- Serious trade talks are likely to get underway soon, but the US is unlikely to roll back the tariff hikes fully.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Look through the noise to see a relatively modest US tariff package for the EU, all things considered.
- An ECB rate cut later this month is now fully priced in, but we still think the Bank will hold fire.
- The SNB can hold off from further rate cuts for now, despite the likely hit to growth from the US tariff hike.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We assume a 10% tariff on UK goods exports to the US lowers 2025 UK GDP growth by 0.2pp.
- But strengthening growth in services—immune from tariffs—shows that UK growth can hold up.
- Strong domestic price pressures will keep the MPC cautious; we still expect two more rate cuts this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Reduced confidence and tight financial conditions are drags.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The nascent improvement is far from comprehensive.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
The nascent improvement in ASEAN manufacturing is far from comprehensive
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Stamp duty changes halt house price inflation in March, but it will accelerate again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Tariffs will keep manufacturing output falling for the forseeable future.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Tariff uncertainty is weighing on manufacturing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global
Tariff uncertainty is weighing on manufacturing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: A poor headline, but the underlying trend remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A poor headline, but the underlying trend remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
