Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, April 2025

In one line: Lifted by tariff front-running, still pointing to downside risks to growth. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, April

In one line: Resilient, but labour market prospects remain difficult.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, April

Slowing, not careering towards recession.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: Mexico, Retail Sales, February, 2025

  • In one line: Retail momentum softens in February after January’s rebound.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

China+ Datanote: Flash PMI, Japan, April

Export orders plunge amid tariff chaos

Duncan WrigleyChina+

EZ Datanote: Trade & construction, EZ, February 2025

In one line: Don’t show Donald Trump the trade charts; Construction down but still defied surveys in Q1

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, April 2025

In one line: As in France, domestic demand is rattled by tariff concerns and PMI shows clear signs of tariff front-running.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, Germany, April 2025

In one line: As in France, domestic demand is rattled by tariff concerns and PMI shows clear signs of tariff front-running.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Flash PMIs, France, April 2025

In one line: Fastest fall in demand for services since Covid pulls down the headline.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Flash PMIs, France, April 2025

In one line: Fastest fall in demand for services since Covid pulls down the headline.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

UK Datanote: UK Public Finances, March 2025

  • In one line:The public finances are weak heading into the trade war, difficult choices lay ahead for the Chancellor.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

24 April 2025 US Monitor April business surveys point to slowing growth, not recession

  • April’s S&P Global PMI points to GDP growth of 1½% in Q2; the regional Fed surveys are only a bit weaker.
  • Tariffs are lifting manufacturers’ costs, but service sector disinflation is ongoing; the Fed can ease soon.
  • Post-tariff uncertainty and the upturn in mortgage rates will add to the headwinds facing housing. 

Samuel TombsUS

24 April 2025 LatAm Monitor Trade, fiscal and policy dynamics shaping the near-term outlook

  • Brazil — Uncertainty and fiscal risks resurfacing
  • Mexico — Reforms and trade noise persist
  • Colombia —  Reform gamble deepens risks

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

24 April 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor 2025 growth downgrades reveal BI's real longer-term anxieties

  • Bank Indonesia stayed on hold this month, but—rightly—downgraded its 2025 growth forecasts…
  • …Consumption is still struggling to increase more meaningfully, and confidence is starting to wobble.
  • India’s trade deficit ballooned unexpectedly in March, but underlying import demand is flailing.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor PMIs sink as domestic demand falters; EZ-US trade surplus jumps

  • Soft April PMIs signal downside risk to our Q2 GDP call, but we still think tariff front-running will help. 
  • Demand for services is retreating, confirming that trade uncertainty is weighing on domestic demand. 
  • Manufacturing is holding the fort for now, with new orders recovering thanks to tariff front-running.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 April 2025 UK Monitor MPC can cut rates back-to-back but will avoid a 50bp reduction

  • Mr. Trump’s tariffs and the resulting uncertainty have led the UK PMI to tank to its lowest since late 2022.
  • Rising price pressures and the PMI’s overreaction to uncertainty mean the MPC will retain some caution.
  • But downside growth risks mean we expect back-to-back, precautionary, rate cuts in May and June.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

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