Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Lower 2026 inflation, but delayed fiscal consolidation lacks credibility and gives the MPC little reason to cut 2-year ahead inflation forecast.
LATAM ECONOMY SLOWS AS DOMESTIC DEMAND SOFTENS
- POLITICAL NOISE AND EXTERNAL UNCERTAINTY DOMINATE
- In one line: Not worth the paper it’s printed on.
In one line: Upside risk to German core inflation.
In one line: Q4 will be better.
In one line: Households' inflation expectations stubbornly above ECB target.
In one line: Downside risk to EZ core inflation, relative to our forecast.
In one line: Spanish households' spending spree is coming to an end.
- In one line: The theatre of the absurd is back.
Tokyo inflation slows slightly, with hints of steady wage inflation going into 2026
In one line: Plateauing after strong growth earlier in the year.
Ignore the Philippines’ misleading y/y trade headlines
THAI AND PHILIPPINE GROWTH SLOWEST SINCE COVID
- TAIWAN IS STILL FLYING, BUT THE TURN IN GDP HAS COME
- The average effective tariff rate is currently just 12%, far short of the near-20% widely expected in spring.
- China imports have dived; more imports than expected from Canada and Mexico are USMCA-compliant.
- The plunge in the Cass Freight Index looks alarming, but it probably is overstating weakness in industry.
- Disinflation in Brazil is broadening across goods and services, as supply conditions remain favourable.
- A strong BRL, cooling demand, and easing core pressures will push headline inflation lower in Q1.
- Copom signals patience but improving data support the case for a cautious rate-cutting cycle soon.
- India finally implemented its new labour codes after five years of dithering, reviving reform momentum…
- …But the structural employment shift from farming will still be held back by huge agricultural support.
- On the surface, the strong and market-beating Q3 GDP is beyond absurd; tread very carefully.
- Tokyo inflation edged down to 2.7% year-over-year in November, but the BoJ will focus more on the markets.
- Government claims that total borrowing this year will less than last year have provided reassurance for now.
- The 2026 wage outlook looks reasonably promising, despite the earlier profit hit to automakers from tariffs.
- A hawkish German HICP keeps our forecast for Eurozone headline inflation at 2.2% for November…
- …but the details in Friday’s early EZ inflation numbers, however, tilt dovish, especially for the core.
- EZ retail sales likely had a slow start to Q4, due to weakness in Spain and Germany.
- The Chancellor is gambling on the MPC cutting rates rapidly, but the Budget provides little reason to do so.
- We think gilts are ripe for a sell-off as the market digests the details of shaky Budget plans.
- This week’s data releases will show a only small hit to activity from months of pre-Budget speculation.
In one line: Another survey suggesting ECB easing is over.
