In one line: Industry will likely support GDP again in Q2, but downside risks remain.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Underlying pressures remain in check, despite a bad start to Q2.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Underlying pressures remain in check, despite a bad start to Q2.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Disinflation resumes, and the near-term outlook remains benign.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Disinflation resumes, and the near-term outlook remains benign.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Decent, and strength likely to continue for now.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Soaring; Q1 GDP growth on track for an upward revision.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Huge bounce in Philippine imports masks a broad-based Q1 improvement
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: COPOM slows pace; signals prolonged hold on rates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: COPOM slows pace; signals prolonged hold on rates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Still trending sideways, as they have since November.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: The Construction PMI improves but signals falling activity, it will remain weak for some time.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The monthly inventories data show very little in the way of pre-tariff stockpiling in most industries...
- ...Consistent with trade data showing that the Q1 jump in imports was limited to a few specific goods.
- Mismeasurement of pharma inventories suggests Q1 GDP growth was underestimated by around 1pp.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The COPOM signalled a pause to rate hikes amid persistent inflation and emerging economic cooling.
- Balanced inflation risks and global uncertainty drive the BCB’s flexible, data-dependent approach.
- We see the end of the tightening cycle, with potential rate cuts delayed until late Q4 or early 2026.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- GDP growth in the Philippines inched up in Q1, to 5.4%, but a big import bounce is to blame…
- …Activity broadly improved, especially government spending, though the Q1 bump should be a one-off.
- Consumption should improve this year due to low inflation, while capex still faces many headwinds.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The MPC shifted dovishly yesterday, cutting growth and inflation forecasts due to heightened uncertainty.
- But rate-setters disappointed the market, which had seen a chance of “gradual” guidance being ditched.
- We still look for two more rate cuts this year, but now in August—versus June previously—and November.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A solid end to Q1, but downside risks prevail.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Rise in demand in Germany pulls up headline.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
An overdue—and big—m/m correction in Philippine sales to close Q1
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
