- In one line: A smaller rate cut than expected amid rising inflation risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A smaller rate cut than expected amid rising inflation risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Consumer sentiment takes a hit as the Holidays approach.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Expect further mild core PCE increases in the near term.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: A modest cut; increasing uncertainty is preventing bolder action.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Rising IESI still points to downside risks for Q4 GDP.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line:Public sector borrowing likely marginally below October Budget forecasts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Retail sales bounce back in November but disappoint relative to consensus.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
This uptick in home sales will prove temporary.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Dovish vote but cautious majority; February rate cut odds-on but only gradual interest rate reductions after.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A modest cut; increasing uncertainty is preventing bolder action.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: Not as bad as PMIs but still in line with our view that GDP will flat-line in Q4 after the Olympics boost in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Politics still holding back consumer confidence.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: 75bp down; 100bp more—at minimum—in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: 75bp down; 100bp more—at minimum—in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
ECB HAS FURTHER ROOM TO EASE POLICY...
...BUT WE ARE CLOSER TO NEUTRAL THAN MARKETS BELIEVE
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A deteriorating near-term inflation outlook will force the BCCh to move to the sidelines in Q1.
- Colombia’s economy started Q4 robustly, but it is too soon to bet on a smooth ride in H1.
- Fiscal noise is forcing the BCB to intervene in Brazil’s FX market, but this will be insufficient.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BSP lowered the target reverse repo rate for a third straight meeting, by 25bp to 5.75%…
- …While maintaining its goal of “less restrictive” policy, despite expecting higher inflation next year.
- We expect average inflation to fall further in 2025, opening the door wide to 100bp more cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
