Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- US - Consumer resilience is ebbing as year-end approaches.
- EUROZONE - SNB to stand pat despite fall in inflation.
- UK - PMI shows growth stabilising after Budget chaos.
- CHINA+ - China's Politburo focus on domestic demand and structural issues.
- EM ASIA - RBI resumes its easing cycle, but this cut will likely be its last.
- LATAM - Brazil's Q3 GDP stalls as tight financial conditions bite.
- In one line: House price inflation should accelerate slightly now that the Budget is behind us.
- In one line: The money and credit data suggests few pre-Budget worries in October.
- In one line: Holding up well in the face of chaotic Budget speculation through November.
- In one line: Export growth remains eye-wateringly high.
In one line: Rise in surplus propped up by trade with EU partners.
Negative sales readings in the Philippines are imminent, at this rate
- Temporary price shocks lifted headline inflation in Mexico, but underlying pressures are modest…
- …Ongoing tariff risk and agricultural volatility keep the inflation risk balance tilted slightly to the upside.
- Inflation is improving in Brazil, but fiscal risk and tight job conditions will keep policymakers cautious.
- We expect ‘final’ payrolls to fall by 13K month-to-month in November, as Budget worries hit jobs.
- The headline LFS unemployment rate will hold at 5.0% in October, as August’s single-month rise corrects.
- Pay growth to slow in October, but wage gains look set to stabilise over the coming 12 months.
- German trade figures for October add to the run of positive figures for early Q4.
- Our nowcast model suggests we are right to look for an increase in GDP in Q4 after stagnation in Q3.
- Risks remain, however, as leading indicators point to renewed weakness in goods trade in November.
- Investors already expect a two-meeting hiatus in the easing cycle; the FOMC will not signal a longer wait.
- Recent data surprises have reinforced the case for easing; much more data will be available in January.
- We expect 75bp of easing in 2026, but fiscal policy and FOMC personnel changes cloud the outlook.
- Taiwan’s exports exploded by 56% in November, far above expectations, driven by AI server demand…
- …We are now upgrading our Q4 GDP growth forecast to 12.0%, the highest this millennium.
- Philippine sales volumes continue to slump; only so much borrowing and remittances can do.
- Export growth in Vietnam disappointed again in November, as US shipments continue to flail…
- …Overall downside risks are receding though, and the Q4 data point to still-healthy GDP growth.
- Inflation in Taiwan eased sharply in November to 1.2%, but purely due to high base effects.
- Immigration has slowed sharply this year, but the labor force likely still is growing, slowly.
- The recent upward creep in unemployment implies labor demand has slowed by more than supply.
- Higher unemployment will squeeze wage growth and keep the pressure on the FOMC to continue easing.
- German industry enjoyed a strong start to Q4 and points to a solid October for EZ industry.
- French and German construction data suggest EZ construction also had a decent October.
- The first investor sentiment gauge for December, while subdued, still implies upside risk to EZ GDP.
- We expect CPI inflation to drop to 3.5% in November, from 3.6% in October.
- A month-to-month fall in food prices and base effects from duty hikes in 2024 will drag inflation lower.
- Our forecast for headline CPI inflation in November sees it 10bp higher than the MPC expects.
- Food deflation softened Colombia’s inflation, but sticky services and indexation are delaying disinflation.
- A widening external deficit and volatile financing flows underscore Colombia’s rising vulnerabilities.
- Minimum-wage pressures and firm domestic demand reinforce BanRep’s high-for-longer policy stance.
- China’s December Politburo meeting yesterday signalled greater confidence in the near-term outlook...
- ...allowing renewed focus on long-term structural issues as well as near-term demand support.
- Exports rose 5.9% year-over-year in November, thanks to demand from non-US markets.
In one line: Ending the year on a slightly more cheerful note.
Politburo signals urgency to stabilise domestic demand
Chinese exports resume solid growth to non-US markets
Japanese wages lifted by bonuses
