Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Destocking largely to blame for Thailand's Q3 GDP miss
In one line: Drag from net trade in goods disappeared in Q3, as US exports jumped, supporting the confirmed picked up in GDP growth.
In one line: Lowest in the Eurozone.
Upstream price pressures in India remain soft on all fronts
- In one line: On hold, reflecting a cautious global backdrop despite continued soft inflation.
- In one line: On hold, reflecting a cautious global backdrop despite continued soft inflation.
- Retailers usually pass on the bulk of any cost increases to consumers, but bank most of any savings.
- Retailers won’t cut prices only to hike them again if the White House reimposes tariffs via other routes.
- The AI stock sell-off is small so far, but a deeper rout would have a tangible impact on GDP growth.
- Colombia’s sticky services inflation, indexation pressures and wage risks limit BanRep’s options.
- The resilient domestic demand and job market are sustaining growth despite fragile external conditions.
- Fiscal uncertainty, political noise and a widening trade deficit challenge BanRep’s cautious stance into 2026.
- Vietnam has formally approved a 10% GDP growth target for 2026, which would be a record result…
- …Flying M2 growth means this is within reach, but it seems destined to correct sharply in the near term.
- Our final forecast for India’s Q3 GDP sees growth slowing markedly to 6.8%, from 7.8% in Q2.
- China’s activity data deteriorated further in October, underscoring still-lacklustre domestic demand…
- …The weakness in FAI remains the focal point; it is on course to have its worst-performing year since 1994.
- Excess property inventory will take some time to digest; the market will now focus on December’s CEWC.
- The paltry 0.2% increase in EZ GDP in Q3 was confirmed, with minimal new country data.
- Trade figures suggest the drag from net trade in goods in Q2 disappeared in Q3…
- …The main impetus was a jump in exports to the US, which is unlikely to last.
- Weak payrolls and a fall in GDP in September make a December rate cut highly likely…
- …But we hold off forecasting a rate cut early next year, as the underlying picture is better than the headlines.
- October inflation will likely fall to 3.5%, but the Budget looks less disinflationary after a political storm.
- In one line: Weak end to Q3 confirms sluggish household demand amid tight financial conditions.
In one line: Disappointing rebound; we don’t trust it.
- In one line: Headline is going nowhere for the rest of this year.
- In one line: Headline is going nowhere for the rest of this year.
- Markets now see an even chance of a December rate cut, after a volley of hawkish Fed speeches...
- ...But no one has changed their view from September, and the official data will support the doves.
- Tinkering with tariffs on food would have only a very small impact on overall inflation.
- Inflation in Brazil fell markedly in October, driven by a stronger BRL and softer domestic demand.
- Services are the main growth anchor, while retail sales have weakened due to tight credit and uncertainty.
- The hawkish hold from the COPOM prepares markets for gradual 2026 rate cuts amid ongoing risks.
- China has been steadily strengthening its position in global maritime and logistics networks.
- It stands to benefit from an operational Northeast Passage, reinforcing its ambitions in global logistics.
- China plans to strengthen its aviation industry, making its own aircraft and expanding its airline market share.
- EZ industrial production had a neutral impact on EZ GDP in Q3, if you believe Eurostat’s figures.
- Construction, meanwhile, is set to have been a drag, while services pulled GDP up by 0.2%.
- Surveys point to a jump in services output ahead, but meagre moves in construction and industry.
