Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Construction was back recession in Q3; it will remain there in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Gradually slowing underlying inflation means only gradual cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices fall marginally in September but the trend remains up.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
China’s benchmark lending rates are steady this month, as regulators gauge the effect of September’s cuts
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's LPRs on hold as regulators judge impact of earlier easing
Japan's export growth picks up modestly
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- -CHINA’S 2024 GDP TARGET IS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
- - BOJ TO HOLD FAST UNTIL JANUARY, BARRING JPY SHOCK
- - BOK TO FOCUS ON COOLING INFLATION AND GROWTH
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Hurricanes weigh on single-family starts, but the underlying trend is flat.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The "DOGE" target of $2T savings is ludicrous, but spending cuts could offset some of the tax cuts.
- Lower fiscal multipliers for tax cuts than for tariff rises and spending cuts also point to a small GDP boost.
- Seasonal adjustment will depress today's jobless claims data; expect a slightly rising trend this winter.
Samuel TombsUS
- Bank Indonesia paused rate cuts for a second straight month, keeping the BI rate at 6.00%.
- Governor Warjiyo cited concerns over the rupiah, in view of less-aggressive Fed cuts under Trump 2.0.
- We still see the BI rate falling to a terminal level of 4.75% by end-2025, with risks to the downside.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s headline export growth improved in October, thanks to demand from non-traditional markets.
- This was largely due to price effects, however, with real export growth weakening in October.
- China’s government has paved the way for early issuance of 2025 special bond quota to support.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Eurozone negotiated wage growth jumped in Q3, boosted by one-off payments in Germany.
- The Q3 leap in wage growth won’t faze the ECB, but it helps our call for a “small” 25bp cut in December.
- The EZ construction industry remains under the weather, despite some improvement in the surveys.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Ofgem’s 9.5% utility price cap hike raised CPI inflation above the MPC’s 2% target in October.
- CPI inflation should rise to 2.6% in November and 3.0% next April, on duty hikes and energy prices…
- ...ruling out a December rate cut; but a February rate cut is likely as underlying services inflation slows.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Hanging on, but we still think the headline will come down soon.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US - October core PCE likely up 0.30%, but details will reassure the FOMC
- EUROZONE - What are the SNB’s options as it edges closer to a policy rate of 0%?
- UK - Mr. Trump’s tariffs will have a limited direct impact on UK GDP
- CHINA+ - China’s household spending boosted by policy; GDP growth target in reach
- EM ASIA - Don’t get carried away by Thailand’s scorching hot Q3 GDP
- LATAM - The LatAm service is on holiday this week, returning next week.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Florida payrolls fell modestly in October, suggesting that the national trend is running close to 100K.
- We are sticking to our forecast for a 250K rebound in November payrolls, consistent with a slowing trend.
- October's drop in housing starts was weather-driven, but the outlook for residential investment is dim.
Samuel TombsUS
- Eurozone headline inflation rebounded in October, and in November it will rise again a touch, to 2.3%.
- We see little in the EZ inflation data to justify a 50bp rate cut in December; we still look for 25bp.
- The ECB will soon need to answer questions about the neutral rate and the net effect of Trump tariffs.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC is forecasting private pay growth, excluding bonuses, to slow to 3.25% in Q4 2025.
- But the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio is high and rising CPI inflation in 2025 could boost pay…
- ...so we expect private ex-bonus AWE growth to slow to 4.0% in Q4 2025, with risks skewed up.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Homebase and other data point to private job growth of about 200K between September and November...
- ...Implying a rebound after October's hurricane hit; we expect 225K private/250K headline in November.
- October housing starts likely were hurricane-hit; homebuilders' optimism about 2025 looks ill-judged.
Samuel TombsUS
