Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Narrowing further; drag from goods trade on GDP eased in Q3.
- In one line: A modest improvement, but risks remain biased to the downside.
- In one line: A modest improvement, but risks remain biased to the downside.
- In one line: Blame yet another sudden spike in gold imports, though exports aren’t helping either.
In one line: Down sharply; unsurprising given drop in German output.
In one line: Mostly base effects, the trend remains subdued.
- Spain’s budget negotiations are non-existent;
another rollover of the 2023 budget seems likely...
- ...Still, its deficit will shrink out to 2027, and in 2025
be inside the EU’s 3% limit.
- ECB doves point to downside inflation risks, but we
still think the Q4 HICP data will move against them.
- The next forecast round from the OBR will likely show
the Chancellor’s headroom has become a £25B hole.
- We think the government will target headroom of
£20B, requiring £35B in tax hikes and spending cuts.
- Stealth, sin, property and pensions taxes will fill most
of the black hole in our view.
- China’s loan growth slowed in September, indicative of
weak credit demand, notably among corporates.
- M1 growth surged, but this likely reflects the robust
stock market, rather than domestic demand reviving.
- The PBoC is likely to save policy rate cuts to stabilise
sentiment if US-China trade frictions worsen severely.
- Brazil — President Lula gains ground amid tensions
- Mexico — Trade, security and stability
- Chile — Conservatives hold ground prior to crucial vote
- Corporate balance sheets look healthy in aggregate;
private credit is a small and stable part of the picture.
- Mortgage refinancing is continuing to reverse its
mid-September surge; expect low levels next year too.
- The Empire State survey signals renewed impetus in
factory gate inflation; fingers crossed it’s an outlier.
Rock-bottom response rate casts doubt over reliability.
In one line: Investors think things will get worse before they get better in Germany.
- In one line: Flirting with outright deflation, which looks likely in the next two reports.
- In one line: Weaking wage growth makes this a dovish release, but the underlying story is a stabilising labour market with jobs no longer falling.
In one line: Rising, but not the start of a sustained pick-up.
- In one line: Retail sales holding up given a tube shutdown and wet weather in September.
- We expect a 0.4% rise in the headline CPI—below the 0.5% priced into swaps—and a 0.3% core print.
- Core goods prices likely were boosted again in September by the tariffs, including new vehicle prices.
- Residual seasonality will lift services prices, but the rebound in airline fares is over, and rent is cooling.
- Core inflation remains elevated in Colombia, highlighting persistent demand across key sectors.
- BanRep is likely to hold rates as minimum-wage risks and inflation expectations challenge policy flexibility.
- Temporary price pressures lifted September inflation in Chile, but disinflation is likely to resume in Q4.
- India’s inflation gauges softened yet again in September, with food prices still largely sliding…
- …Housing inflation popped out of nowhere, but the fundamentals don’t support persistently big gains.
- We have cut our 2025 and 2026 CPI forecasts further, to 2.2% and 3.8%, respectively.
