Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- ADP’s numbers have considerably understated the initial official estimates of private payrolls this year.
- Reliable surveys suggest an initial private print of 75K-to-100K in November, still too soft for comfort.
- A raft of indicators point to consumer weakness in Q4. We think spending will rise by only around ½%.
- Brazilian Real — Strong flows and shifting rate expectations
- Mexican Peso — Rebounding, but volatility persists
- Chilean Peso — Election relief and external tailwinds
- Thailand’s November CPI prints were firmer than expected, but we still see an MPC cut this month.
- We’ve raised our 2025 forecast to -0.1%, while simultaneously cutting our 2026 call to 0.0%…
- … Another power tariff cut is scheduled for January, and underlying inflation pressures are non- existent.
- Swiss inflation is now at the bottom end of the SNB’s 0-to-2% inflation target range.
- It will likely fall further in the near term, to a trough of -0.2% or so, before rising gradually.
- The SNB will ignore sub-zero inflation; it is focused on inflation in the medium term. SNB easing is over.
- Our models indicate that the PMI is consistent with quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1% in Q4.
- But the upward revision from the flash PMI suggests sentiment improved as the Budget became clearer.
- So, we see a decent chance of the PMI improving further in December.
In one line: Inflation has further to fall, but SNB easing is done.
- In one line: Inflation has further to fall, but SNB easing is done.
Food inflation returns to the black in Thailand
- US - Why are tariff revenues falling short of everyone’s projections?
- EUROZONE - Swiss and Italian GDP recovering; their fortunes will diverge in 2026
- UK - Delayed fiscal tightening gives the MPC little reason to cut rates more
- CHINA+ - China’s consumption promotion plan flatters to deceive
- EM ASIA - Egg on our faces for India’s Q3, but the detail is with us
- LATAM - Inflation eases further; Copom likely to cut rates in January
- In one line: Industrial recovery stalls again.
In one line: Too hot for a December cut, but dovish data in food and core goods.
In one line: Steady near record lows.
- Lower immigration, AI, tariffs and federal job cuts have potential to lift the natural unemployment rate...
- ...But firms are filling openings more easily and plan to slow wage growth, pointing to excess unemployment.
- No signs of excessive unemployment by state or by sector, indicative of a still-low equilibrium rate.
- Industrial output in Brazil disappointed across most categories, as tight financial conditions bite…
- …The PMI signals to ongoing weakness, though sentiment has steadied even as firms trim production.
- Benign price dynamics in Peru leave room for a final rate cut, potentially at next week’s meeting.
- Taiwan’s Q3 GDP growth was revised up to 8.2%—a 0.6pp rise— driven by a bigger boost from net trade.
- More granular data on investment reveals its overall weakness was due to inventory drawdown.
- India’s IP and GST readings for Q4-to-date are less alarming once Diwali noise is stripped out.
- EZ inflation surprised slightly to the upside in November, matching our forecast.
- Energy inflation is being lifted by widening refining margins but is still low, and set to plunge in January.
- Core goods inflation is likely stabilising at just over 0.5%, with services set to drift lower into 2026.
- We expect manufacturing output to rebound in October, as car factories reopened after a cyber attack.
- Growth in consumer-facing services will ease as pre-Budget worries creep into activity.
- Underlying economic activity is still holding up close to trend, so spare capacity is emerging only slowly.
Core goods inflation likely to retreat in H1 2026.
- In one line: Core goods inflation likely to retreat in H1 2026.
In one line: China’s industrial profit recovery stalled as growth driver weaken in October
