Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Muddied by residual seasonality, but vegetable-price pressures are reviving.
- In one line: Muddied by residual seasonality, but vegetable-price pressures are reviving.
In one line: still looking for signs of private sector credit demand
In one line: Unrevised, lowest in the big four.
In one line: A fall is coming in January.
Malaysian retail sales are pretty static, again.
- In one line: Retail gains signal early stabilisation.
In one line:signalling confidence, no major course shift
In one line: On hold, as we expect it to be until early 2027.
- In one line: On hold, as we expect it to be until early 2027.
- China’s inflation outturn was a mixed bag, with CPI
rising but PPI reflation seeming to lose momentum.
- A closer look reveals the CPI jump was due to transient
factors, while PPI was dragged down by base effects.
- Weak domestic demand persisted in November, with all
eyes on the CEWC for hints on future policy direction.
- In one line: Easing “nearing its end”, but we still see a terminal rate of 4.25%.
BSP easing “nearing its end”, but we still see a terminal rate of 4.25%
Much weaker wage growth likely lies ahead.
HOUSE PRICES FELL IN SEPTEMBER...
- ...AND BUDGET WORRIES WILL WEIGH ON ACTIVITY IN Q4
- We think retail sales dropped by a hefty 0.7% in October, dragged down by a big fall in auto sales.
- A raft of indicators suggest that consumers’ spending will grow at a negligible pace in Q4.
- The Thanksgiving week drop in continuing claims is a seasonal fluke; the trend remains upwards.
- Benign inflation prints in Brazil strengthen the case for
easing, yet de-anchored expectations force caution.
- Activity is softening without collapsing, supporting a
gradual, data-dependent transition towards Q1 cuts.
- But external volatility, fiscal uncertainty and currency
risks keep the bar to a January rate cut set high.
- A food-price drop and tobacco-duty base effects should lower CPI inflation to 3.5% in November.
- We are tracking a chunky hotel-price rise, while a large airfares base effect will drop out of the figures...
- …So, we look for CPI services inflation to increase to 4.7% in November, from 4.5% in October.
- The SNB held its policy rate at 0% at its final meeting of the year yesterday, as widely expected.
- Next year will be boring for Swiss central bank watchers; we expect no change in rates until 2027.
- The SNB thinks policy is expansionary; it will likely hike next, in 2027, as inflation nears the 1% mark.
- The BSP eased policy further this month, cutting its
benchmark rate by a further 25bp to 4.50%…
- …We still see a terminal rate of 4.25%; growth
worries are likely to continue to outweigh CPI risks.
- Indonesian sales growth looks set to hit a 20-month
high in November, but it may also soon hit a ceiling.
