Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- GDP growth in Vietnam surprised massively to the upside in Q4, rising to 8.4% from 8.1% in Q3…
- …But we still expect to see a sustained moderation this year; our revised 2026 forecast is 7.5%.
- Export momentum has almost vanished, FDI is rolling over, and wage growth is softening.
- BI kept its benchmark rate at 4.75%, in line with most expectations; the real rate is close to neutral…
- …Its tone remains dovish, and we continue to believe next year will see a tactical shift to RRR cuts.
- The BoT resumed easing with a 25bp cut; we still expect a quick follow-up cut at February’s meeting.
- India’s PMIs continued to roll over in December, altogether pointing to a Q4 GDP growth U-turn…
- …The future output sub-index is going from bad to worse, adding weight to our downbeat 2026 view.
- A plunge in gold imports drove the shrinkage of the trade gap last month, but US exports are bouncing.
- The BSP eased policy further this month, cutting its
benchmark rate by a further 25bp to 4.50%…
- …We still see a terminal rate of 4.25%; growth
worries are likely to continue to outweigh CPI risks.
- Indonesian sales growth looks set to hit a 20-month
high in November, but it may also soon hit a ceiling.
- Export growth in Vietnam disappointed again in November, as US shipments continue to flail…
- …Overall downside risks are receding though, and the Q4 data point to still-healthy GDP growth.
- Inflation in Taiwan eased sharply in November to 1.2%, but purely due to high base effects.
- Thailand’s November CPI prints were firmer than expected, but we still see an MPC cut this month.
- We’ve raised our 2025 forecast to -0.1%, while simultaneously cutting our 2026 call to 0.0%…
- … Another power tariff cut is scheduled for January, and underlying inflation pressures are non- existent.
- Taiwan’s Q3 GDP growth was revised up to 8.2%—a 0.6pp rise— driven by a bigger boost from net trade.
- More granular data on investment reveals its overall weakness was due to inventory drawdown.
- India’s IP and GST readings for Q4-to-date are less alarming once Diwali noise is stripped out.
- ASEAN’s PMI rose to a 38-month high in November, but a few of the drivers are questionable.
- Indonesian exports missed badly in October, but commodities should be more supportive next year.
- Food disinflation is back in Indonesia, dragging the headline rate below the consensus for November
- BI stood pat yesterday, as widely expected; we see one final cut in December and RRR easing in 2026.
- Singaporean export growth leapt unexpectedly in October, but leading indicators remain very soft.
- Malaysian exports are finally benefiting from the AI boom, as they surged by 15.7% in October.
- Surging gold imports are only part of the historic blow-out in India’s trade deficit in October…
- …Real import demand looks to be rocketing too, though INR depreciation should keep this in check.
- Exports weren’t as weak as their headline plunge suggests, but non-US demand is now wobbling.
- GDP growth in Thailand slumped to a fresh post-Covid low of 1.2% in Q3, due mainly to destocking…
- …A few key details were otherwise solid, including goods exports and a rebound in fixed investment.
- We still see annual GDP growth weakening to 2.0% this year and 1.8% next year.
- CPI inflation in India fell to an historic low in October, at 0.3%, as food deflation deepened…
- …Our daily food-price tracker compels us to lower our 2025 and 2026 forecasts to 2.1% and 3.3%.
- The mean-reversion up in core inflation vanishes completely if we strip out the lift from gold prices.
- Indonesian retail sales remain soft, particularly discretionary items, with BI cuts yet to be felt at all…
- …Confidence revived suddenly in October on job hopes, but faster income growth remains far away.
- Numerous ‘sales’ days in Malaysia boosted retail in September; e-commerce is altering the landscape.
- Vietnamese exports disappointed in October, but the payback from US front-loading isn’t one-way.
- BNM held rates as the economy remains resilient to US tariffs; the new trade deal will enhance this.
- Taiwan’s inflation ticked up in October, probably lifted by mid-autumn festival spending.
- GDP growth in Indonesia slipped minimally in Q3, to 5.0% from 5.1% in Q2, in line with our forecast…
- …The main cause of the dip was softer private local demand; the Q2 pop in equipment capex is fading.
- Private consumption is facing more headwinds, with real wage growth falling back into the red.
- India’s real GST collection growth in October was flat, at best, showing no post-cut pop in spending.
- Recovering Chinese demand is helping to keep Indonesian export growth lofty, but big risks linger.
- We have raised our 2026 inflation forecast for Indonesia to 3.1%, in light of the firm October reads.
- BI surprised again, but with a rate hold this time; we’re sticking to our end-2025 call of 4.50%.
- Malaysian inflation increased again, the third rise since the expansion of the sales and services tax.
- India’s full core IP data for Q3 show a solid bounce, but the GDP signal remains subdued.
- The ballooning in India’s trade gap in September was due to gold imports, but beware US exports.
- Singapore’s Q3 GDP print surprised to the upside, at 2.9%, but the headline slowdown is far from over…
- …The MAS expects this to be the case too, implying the bar to fresh policy easing is still high.
- India’s inflation gauges softened yet again in September, with food prices still largely sliding…
- …Housing inflation popped out of nowhere, but the fundamentals don’t support persistently big gains.
- We have cut our 2025 and 2026 CPI forecasts further, to 2.2% and 3.8%, respectively.
