Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- Bank Indonesia shocked the consensus—yet again—with a third straight 25bp BI rate cut.
- Indian export growth barely moved in August, masking a bigger nosedive in shipments to the US.
- Talks with Washington have resumed amid a drop in India’s oil imports; lower tariffs in Q4 still possible.
- The August bounce in India's inflation should prove short-lived; high food base effects will return…
- …The upward mean-reversion in core CPI is starting to see more cracks and waning momentum.
- We have cut our full-year average forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.3% and 4.2%, respectively.
- The Philippines’ unemployment rate in July jumped to its highest level in close to three years, at 5.3%…
- …Adverse weather rightly was to blame, but hiring intentions are now weakening more noticeably.
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia popped in July, but the long-term outlook remains very challenging.
- Indonesia’s finance minister is out, introducing uncertainty in an area of policy that’s been sound…
- …Fortunately for Mr. Purbaya, the worst of the slump in public revenue growth should be over.
- Taiwanese exports moderate, but not as sharply as expected, as the impact of the AI boom prevails.
- Vietnam’s August export figures confirm that the front-loading to the US is well and truly over.
- Our proxy GDP gauge is holding steady from Q2 at 6.8%; ‘official’ growth rate will probably be higher.
- The household sector is still on the mend, finding greater support from the job market.
- BNM left the policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, as it remains confident despite US tariffs...
- ...The Bank has seen strong orders for electronics and expects domestic demand to stay robust.
- We’ve slashed our 2025 and 2026 CPI forecasts for Thailand to just -0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI rose more comfortably above 50 in August, to 51.0…
- …Consolidation above 50 is looking likely, with short-term leading indicators recovering in tandem.
- But downside risks prevail over the long run; for now, we’ve yet to see firms cut prices to fight tariffs.
- Indonesia’s trade surplus is ballooning again, forcing upgrades to our current account forecasts…
- …But support from US front-loading will soon fade; commodity prices won’t provide much of a cushion.
- Rapidly waning core pressure is the main story behind the soft August CPI; one BI cut still to come.
- The BSP eased policy further yesterday, by 25bp, cutting the TRR rate to 5.00%, as widely expected…
- …But its rhetoric was much less dovish; Governor Remolona now thinks the rate is in the “sweet spot”.
- We continue to see one more cut, but this is unlikely to come until December, after the Q3 GDP report.
- Thai exports beat expectations in July, but US front-running will end soon and we see little else to cheer.
- Singapore’s July’s CPI was soft, but it will take a lot more than this to convince the MAS to ease again.
- Taiwan retail sales fell again in July, as discretionary spending remains under pressure.
- India’s PMIs continue to shrug off the tariff noise— even the 50% threat—with the August data punchy…
- …Partial Q3 PMIs point to a continuation of near-7% GDP growth, but watch the slump in future output.
- Our final forecast for next week’s Q2 GDP report is 7%, implying only a minor cooling from 7.4% in Q1.
- Bank Indonesia surprised again this month by lowering the BI rate by a further 25bp to 5.00%…
- …We reiterate our 4.75% end-2025 call; the recent food CPI pop is skin-deep and the core is fading.
- Malaysian exports surprised everyone by expanding in July, after two months of contraction.
- Thai GDP growth in Q2 was largely in line with expectations, cooling to 2.8% from 3.2%…
- …Export front-loading was still a big part of the story, but this lift should now unwind quickly in H2.
- We still see a broad slowdown, but our 2025 and 2026 forecasts now stand at 2.0% and 1.8%.
- The Philippines’ Q2 GDP beat expectations slightly, with yearly growth ticking up to 5.5% from 5.4%…
- …But this was down largely to a misleading U-turn in net exports, masking a weakening domestically.
- We reiterate our below-consensus 5.3% forecast for 2025, implying a renewed slowdown in H2.
- The RBI stood pat this month, commendably in the wake of the tariff outcry; we still see one more cut.
- Vietnamese exports comfortably beat expectations in July, but US front-loading looks finally to be over.
- Taiwan inflation edged up, on higher education and entertainment costs, though this is likely temporary.
- Indonesia’s Q2 GDP defied expectations, with growth rising to 5.1% on the back of investment…
- …Consumption was stable, unsurprisingly, but our more realistic proxy series shows a Q2 jump.
- The Philippines’ soft July CPI print was no surprise to us, but should mark the low of the current cycle.
- Two-way trade in the Philippines easily beat the consensus in June, but base effects helped hugely…
- …Still, underlying the inflated headlines are real recoveries in chip exports and capital goods imports.
- Net exports will be the star of the show in next week’s Q2 GDP; we now see the headline at 5.3%.
- Indian IP growth sank to a 10-month low in June, but the huge upgrade to May cushions this blow.
- Overall momentum continues to deteriorate, pouring a lot of cold water over the rosy PMIs…
- …The slump in consumer firms continues, but expect to see ‘better’ manufacturing in Q2 GDP.
- India’s PMIs continued to regain momentum in July on a three-month rolling basis, despite services dip.
- They point to waning downside risk to GDP growth this year, but the clouds over 2026 are darkening.
- Thailand’s near-full Q2 trade data point to a smaller but still-big net GDP boost, at +4.4pp from +7.0pp.
- Indian core IP growth rose for a second straight month in June, to 1.7%, after its April plunge…
- …Refined petroleum product growth has recovered and should stabilise from here on out.
- Overall momentum is still deteriorating, however, with the electricity slump particularly worrying.
