Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- Indonesian growth fell to 4.9% in Q1, as base effects hit public spending and construction flat-lined…
- …Machinery capex should come under more pressure soon, with Chinese import demand cratering.
- We have cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast slightly, to 4.9% from 5.0%, and still see 100bp in BI cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoT enacted a second straight 25bp rate cut, to 1.75%, in the wake of the US’s tariff aggression…
- …We think it has left the door open to, but also set the bar high for, extra cuts; for now, we see no more.
- Our final GDP forecast for Q1 sees only a minor slip in headline growth to 2.9%, from 3.2% in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thai exports continued to soar in Q1, on the back of US tariff front-loading, which leapt in March…
- …But their boost to GDP growth should be counter-balanced markedly by much more destocking…
- …While service exports likely will impose their first big drag post-Covid, given falling Chinese tourists.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia stayed on hold this month, but—rightly—downgraded its 2025 growth forecasts…
- …Consumption is still struggling to increase more meaningfully, and confidence is starting to wobble.
- India’s trade deficit ballooned unexpectedly in March, but underlying import demand is flailing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP restarted its easing cycle this month with a 25bp cut, to 5.50%, after February’s shock pause…
- …The Board is no longer behind the curve on CPI, as it slashed its 2025 forecast to 2.3%, from 3.5%.
- We’re maintaining our 2.5% CPI call, for now, and still see 75bp more in rate cuts by year-end.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI voted unanimously for a second 25bp rate cut and a shift in stance to “accommodative”.
- Its softer CPI forecasts now see below-target inflation persisting until the end of this year…
- …Opening the door to at least two more cuts—our baseline—more than the consensus for just one.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian CPI returned to the black in March, as the power discounts expired; food will soon U-turn.
- The Philippines’ sales index continues to surge, but a number of consumer sectors are still struggling.
- Food inflation in Taiwan continues to rise, though some of this is exaggerated by base effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Seasonally adjusting Vietnam’s quirky GDP data shows that growth improved further in Q1, to 7.3%…
- …But a sharp fall by year-end to sub-5%—at least— looks inevitable, as US tariffs hit exports and capex.
- Outright deflation in Thailand seems set to take hold, again, bolstering our call for an April BoT cut.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The manufacturing PMIs for India and ASEAN have regained momentum recently; Taiwan is wobbling…
- …But the pick-up within ASEAN is skewed; expect domestic demand’s outperformance to continue.
- Regional export volumes are hovering above trend, implying they could stomach a big hit from tariffs.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Core production growth in India fell to a five-month low in February, due partly to residual seasonality.
- The plunge in refined petroleum products output growth is real though, with more softness likely.
- The bright spots—steel and cement—should soon feel the pinch of a waning public infra drive.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Retail sales growth in Thailand sank to -1% in January, but volatile ‘other’ sales are to blame.
- The nascent post-stimulus recovery in confidence is wobbling, and could be hit further by the quake…
- …Fundamentally, though, labour productivity is improving, boding well for future wage growth.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s flash PMIs for March were mixed, but the key service sector is still seeing falling momentum…
- …Altogether, the PMIs point to GDP growth slowing to mid-4% in Q1; we’re happy to stay downbeat.
- Thai exports continue to defy gravity, and US pre-tariff front-loading is only part of the picture.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia left the BI rate at 5.75% for a second meeting, against our minority rate-cut call.
- We still expect 100bp in total easing this year; the consensus on 2025 inflation remains way too high.
- The equity sell-off will add more urgency to cuts, as it’s deep enough to have real implications for capex.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s deficit consolidated in February to its smallest since mid-2021, as imports tanked…
- …But much of this was due to ongoing corrections in oil and gold imports; exports rebounded too.
- Non-oil and gold merchandise imports, plus imports of services, are still on a firm upward trend.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian export growth surprised greatly to the upside in February, leaping to 14.1%…
- …But base effects did more heavy lifting; monthly momentum and commodity support are lacking.
- Indonesia’s exports aren’t seeing any US front- loading, unlike some of its neighbours; that’s good.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia sank in January as the pre-VAT-hike front-loading unwound.
- The current recovery in consumer confidence—if it holds—points to 2% average sales growth in 2025…
- …Faster growth will be hard to achieve, with spending already above-average in terms of income use.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s first trade deficit since mid-2022 was due partly to Tet noise, masking a spike in US exports…
- …Payback will eventually follow the front-loading of US demand; FDI is feeling the tariff uncertainty.
- The soft February CPI should be all the BSP needs to resume rate cuts at its next meeting in April.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI leapt suddenly in February to a seven-month high of 51.5…
- …But it seems to have been flattered by residual seasonality, and pockets of weakness still persist.
- The descent into outright deflation in Indonesia should be short-lived, as the power relief expires.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoT surprised this month, resuming its easing with a 25bp cut, against the consensus for a hold…
- …We expect one—final—cut in Q2, as rising GDP growth and inflation should shortly reverse course.
- Taiwanese retail sales growth jumped in January, but the underlying story remains weak.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia held its policy rate at 5.75%, hitting pause again after January’s surprise rate cut…
- …We’re sticking to our above-consensus 100bp 2025 easing call, with inflation set to cool further.
- Mr. Prabowo’s ‘austerity’ leaves the ball more in BI’s court too, even if this drive doesn’t fully materialise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
