- In one line: Widespread uncertainty and weak demand pummel the PMI, but it should recover gradually.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Job growth holds up and disinflation is over.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Not the start to Q1 we’d hoped for. .
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Construction downturn intensifies midway through Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Finally seeing signs of US front-loading in Vietnamese exports, Tet noise aside
Ignore the official slip, sales growth strengthened in February
Food inflation noesdives with the help of residual Tet noise
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Providing some reassurance on service sector activity.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Why use a broken compass when you have GPS?
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Catastrophic jobs balance exaggerates economic weakness, but risks to our growth forecast are firmly down.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Italian growth fared better than previously thought in Q4, and should now pick up.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Easing borrowing costs drive car registrations higher in February.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Mexico’s economy is struggling as tariffs noise fuel uncertainty, weighing on trade, capex and confidence.
- Private consumption and investment are plunging; remittances from the US face growing threats.
- Colombia’s external accounts are seeing lower deficits, robust remittances and an improving outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Vietnam’s first trade deficit since mid-2022 was due partly to Tet noise, masking a spike in US exports…
- …Payback will eventually follow the front-loading of US demand; FDI is feeling the tariff uncertainty.
- The soft February CPI should be all the BSP needs to resume rate cuts at its next meeting in April.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The ECB is playing it safe; trade uncertainty outweighs upside risks from fiscal stimulus, for now.
- April is wide open, but the ECB will pause its easing unless it perceives US tariffs on a sustained basis.
- The ECB has pushed out the point at which inflation hits 2%; it will soon have to abandon the idea entirely.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect GDP to fall 0.1% month-to-month in January, as consumers stayed away from the pub.
- Manufacturing output should also unwind from the sharp increase seen in December.
- We continue to look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q1, but downside risks are building.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
China's steps up fiscal support in a measured fashion; room for further easing
Caixin services activity improves
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Door now wide open for the BSP to resume easing in April
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
