Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- The retail sales decline in Mexico signals economic strain, prompting urgent need for interest rate cuts.
- Rising remittances provide temporary relief, yet worries are growing amid political uncertainty.
- Key sectors are struggling as consumer sentiment deteriorates, highlighting challenges for the recovery.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The EZ PMI barely budged in October and is consistent with slower GDP growth in Q4…
- ...But we think growth will remain solid despite agreeing with the PMI about a slowdown in France.
- Markets are trying to pull the ECB towards a 50bp rate cut in December; we still see 25bp.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The composite PMI fell to an 11-month low, as Budget uncertainty hit firms.
- The forward-looking balances suggest that the PMI will rebound in November.
- The PMI indicates that inflation is stubborn and firms expanded margins more quickly in October.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
A SECOND BOT CUT IN DECEMBER IS TOUCH-AND-GO
- …THE RBI TURNS ‘NEUTRAL’; ALL EYES ON Q3 GDP
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Under pressure, as agriculture and industrial production weaken.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Under pressure, as agriculture and industrial production weaken.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The boost to claims from Helene likely faded last week, but the impact of Boeing disruption likely grew.
- Expect to see the peak impact of Hurricane Milton in today’s data, lifting headline claims to about 270K.
- Don’t attempt to forecast October payrolls using today’s PMI report; other indicators are better.
Samuel TombsUS
- The dovish shift in expectations for ECB policy and interest rates continues apace.
- Soft PMIs will add to the conviction in markets that an accelerated easing cycle is underway…
- …But next week’s calendar will likely be more challenging for dovish EZ rate expectations.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- UK business investment has flatlined for eight years, but an upturn seems to be underway.
- Firms are borrowing again as interest rates fall, and CFOs report the cost of credit is easing.
- Investment intentions signal 2.9% capex growth year-over-year in Q3.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Government borrowing overshoots OBR forecast again, Ms. Reeves will raise planned taxes, spending and borrowing in her October 30 budget.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- US - Households’ liquid assets can’t alone sustain rapid spending growth
- EUROZONE - ECB doves won this month, but easing will be gradual from here
- UK - Budget will be stimulatory, despite large tax increases
- CHINA+ - China still likely to approve further targeted fiscal support
- EM ASIA - BoT’s long overdue cut is here; a December move is touch-and-go
- LATAM - Brazil faces slowdown amid inflation, drought and capex challenges
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The average coupon rate for corporate bonds will continue to climb as maturing bonds are refinanced.
- Small businesses remain reliant for external finance on banks, which are continuing to increase spreads.
- Helene likely had a minor impact on existing home sales last month, which we think were little changed.
Samuel TombsUS
- Italy’s MTFS plan suggests it is doing everything right, complying with new EU rules in quick order…
- ...This is because Rome is assuming potential growth of almost 1%, a dream scenario for Italy…
- ...What’s more, this year’s budget will be bigger than Rome thinks, making 2025 more difficult.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We estimate that looser fiscal policy in the October 30 Budget will boost GDP by 0.5% in 2025/26.
- As a result, the MPC will need to hold Bank Rate 25-to-50bp higher than it would otherwise.
- Rate-setters will keep cutting Bank Rate, but fiscal policy is one reason to expect only gradual cuts.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Energy inflation likely will be little affected by Milton and Helene, food inflation will rise slightly eventually.
- But the case for a marked rise in core inflation is pretty slim, given the historical record.
- The main exception for October probably is the risk of a jump in prices for lodging away from home.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Colombia’s economic recovery continues, but sector disparities highlight underlying vulnerabilities.
- Retail sales offset weak manufacturing output; inflation and political uncertainty pose risks.
- BanRep likely will cut rates further at upcoming meetings but has no need to accelerate the pace.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chinese banks cut both LPRs by 25bp yesterday, in a sign of support for sentiment and demand.
- But the housing minister’s new demand-support policy fell well short of similar measures in 2015.
- The overall residential market has a long way to go, though tier-one markets are showing signs of life.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- EURUSD won’t make it to 1.15 by year-end, but we still think it will get there, eventually, in H1 2025.
- Our inflation, interest rate and GDP forecasts signal upside risks for EURUSD from its current level…
- …But the trend in political uncertainty points to downside risk to this call.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect the Chancellor to raise government investment by £24B in 2028/29 in the Budget.
- Ms. Reeves will change the fiscal rules to allow more borrowing to fund the extra investment.
- We expect the Chancellor to target public sector net liabilities falling relative to GDP.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
New residential construction likely to flatline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
