- In one line: Expect easing to resume in November.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: The overdue turn we’ve been waiting for; expect another follow-up cut in December.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: The overdue turn we’ve been waiting for; expect another follow-up cut in December.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Many more cuts to come, and potentially larger ones from December.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Many more cuts to come, and potentially larger ones from December.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: EZ industry escaped recession in Q3; investor sentiment rises again, modestly.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Slowing wages make a November rate cut a slam dunk as the MPC will ignore dodgy job data.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Slowing wages make a November rate cut a slam dunk as the MPC will ignore dodgy job data.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Brazil — Fiscal reset amid policy shifts
- Mexico — Sheinbaum’s pragmatic economic shift?
- Colombia — Increased political noise hurting the economy
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The Bank of Thailand finally joined the regional easing wave, surprising with a 25bp policy rate cut…
- …Our dovish view was vindicated, and we still expect another cut in December if Q3 GDP disappoints.
- We reckon it’s too early to rule out a shift to 50bp cuts by the BSP; policy remains extremely tight.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We still think French GDP rose solidly in Q3, despite hard data pointing to downside risks.
- Government spending in France is set to slow sharply next year, but the hit to GDP should be minor.
- We now see GDP in France growing by 1.0% in 2025, 0.3pp below our previous forecast.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The decline in CPI inflation in September likely leaves Governor Bailey primed for “aggressive” rate cuts.
- But the fall in services inflation was exaggerated by volatile airfares; the MPC likely will look through this.
- We still expect the MPC to cut rates quarterly, but a consecutive cut in December is a close call now.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Blame the continued reversal of helpful food base effects; m/m trends are still improving.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Blame the continued reversal of helpful food base effects; m/m trends are still improving.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A quiet end to Q3 for two-way trade, the seasonal bump to the surplus aside.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - Core CPI inflation still on track for 2% in 2025, despite September pick-up
- EUROZONE - The ECB will cut rates this week, but will it strike a hawkish tone?
- UK - Disposable income growth will keep consumption ticking along
- CHINA+ - China still likely to approve further targeted fiscal support
- EM ASIA - No cut—yet—but the RBI tide has turned; all eyes on Q3 GDP
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation remains benign despite electricity-related shock
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
