Pantheon Publications

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 3 February 2025

Not the best of starts to 2025 for ASEAN manufacturing
A huge, albeit temporary, CPI gift from Indonesia’s new government

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

China+ Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, January

Caixin PMI holds up better than official index

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 3 February 2025: Caixin PMI holds up better than official PMI

China's Caixin PMI holds up better than official index
Korean PMI rebounds with underlying export growth in decent shape

Duncan WrigleyChina+

Global Datanote: BanRep Announcement, Colombia, January, 2025

• In one line: On hold, as uncertainty has increased substantially.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: BanRep Announcement, Colombia, January, 2025

• In one line: On hold, as uncertainty has increased substantially.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending. December

A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending. December

A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Employment Cost Index, Q4

The case for softer services inflation remains intact.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

EM Asia Datanote: Core Industries, India, December

• In one line: A respectable Q4 comeback, to close out 2024.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EZ Datanote: ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations, EZ, December 2024

In one line: Edging up again. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment & State CPIs, Germany, January 2025

In one line: Unemployment is still rising; soft state CPIs can’t be extrapolated to the HICP.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PM Datanote: Sectoral activity, and Unemployment, Chile, December, 2025

• In one line: A solid end to the year, explaining the cautious tone of the BCCh.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, January 2025

• In one line: House price inflation is trending higher despite the weak monthly gain in Nationwide's index.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Spain, December 2024

In one line: Spanish retail was on fire in December. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, January 2025

In one line: Still (very) friendly to ECB doves.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, December 2024

In one line: A poor finish to 2024, but probably not as bad as initially reported.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, November

• In one line: Support from cash stimulus starting to surface, if you squint.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

China+ Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, January

Tokyo inflation bumps up on mounting food inflation

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 31 January 2025: Tokyo inflation bumps up

Tokyo inflation bumps up on mounting food inflation

Duncan WrigleyChina+

3 February 2025 US Monitor A growth scare looms, as tariffs hit and the saving rate rebounds

• The tariffs imposed by Mr. Trump will lift consumer prices by 0.6%, if they are maintained.
• Recent strong growth in consumption can be largely attributed to preemptive purchases of imports.
• A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable; expect sub-2% GDP growth soon, as consumption growth slows.

Samuel TombsUS