Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

PM Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, July, 2024

  • In one line: A decent performance in early Q3, but tight financial conditions remain a threat.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

Global Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, September

In one line: As expected; plenty to talk about on the press conference. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, September

In one line: As expected; plenty to talk about on the press conference. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 September 2024 US Monitor The August core PCE deflator likely rose at a below-target pace again

  • PPI and CPI data collectively point to a 0.14% increase in the August core PCE deflator.
  • Slowing wage growth, a margin squeeze and lower energy prices will return core inflation to 2% in Q2.
  • Jobless claims have fallen since July, but hiring is dropping faster; expect even lower job growth in Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

13 September 2024 LatAm Monitor Mexico's industrial sector facing stagnation, amid major challenges

  • Mexico’s manufacturing struggles continue, as global demand and the outlook weaken.
  • Political risk and judicial reforms spark market fears, threatening the industrial and capex recovery.
  • Nearshoring benefits are delayed, and tight financial conditions and uncertainty weigh on manufacturing.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

13 September 2024 China+ Monitor China's domestic economy probably cooled further in August

  • China’s early reporting data point to softening domestic demand in August.
  • Officials are likely to blame poor activity readings on bad weather, but that’s only part of the story.
  • Structural adjustment is dragging on demand, with piecemeal policy support only a partial offset.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

13 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor "Que sera sera"; Ms. Lagarde is mute on the ECB's next move

  • The ECB cut by 25bp as expected; an October cut is now a tall order, but a December cut is back on. 
  • The rise in the ECB’s core inflation forecast will prevent the Bank from being mugged by reality in Q4. 
  • Early signs show that the ECB is noticing the sustained weakness in EZ domestic demand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 September 2024 UK Monitor MPC preview: rates on hold and little new guidance

  • We expect the MPC to vote 7-to-2 to keep Bank Rate on hold at next week’s policy meeting.
  • Rate-setters will note slowing inflation supports faster cuts but a solid labour market suggests caution.
  • The MPC will signal further rate cuts are likely, but that policy will need to stay sufficiently restrictive.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

Global Datanote: US CPI, August

Don’t panic, it's noise not signal; the core PCE probably rose by about 0.22%

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

PM Datanote: US CPI, August

Don’t panic, it's noise not signal; the core PCE probably rose by about 0.22%.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

12 September 2024 US Monitor Core CPI inflation will keep falling, despite August's small overshoot

  • The uptick in the core CPI in August largely was due to the reversal of erratic price falls in prior months.
  • We expect smaller increases in primary rent, falling services inflation and flat goods prices through Q4.
  • The CPI data tentatively imply a 0.22% core PCE, but will hone our forecast after today’s PPI data. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

12 September 2024 LatAm Monitor Mixed performance amid global uncertainty and upcoming Fed cuts

  • Mexico — Headwinds amid reform uncertainty
  • Colombia — Signs of recovery despite many headwinds
  • Peru —  Resilient despite global noise

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

12 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor Germany's economy teetering on the brink of recession, again

  • Germany’s economy is now in recession, judging by the trend in investment and survey data…
  • …But we think rising consumers’ spending will just about keep the economy’s head above water in Q3.
  • We’re lowering our German GDP growth forecasts for Q3, Q4 and Q1 by a cumulative 0.3pp.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 September 2024 UK Monitor GDP dragged down by erratic sectors but will rebound in August

  • A second consecutive month of unchanged GDP gives little reason for worry.
  • GDP was depressed by erratic sectors; they will rebound, and surveys point to robust growth.
  • So, the MPC will still wait until November to cut interest rates again despite the downside GDP surprise.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, August

Punishingly high borrowing costs continuing to weigh on hiring and capex plans.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 10 September 2024

In one line: China's exports buoyed by strong BRICS and EU demand

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, August

In one line: China's exports buoyed by strong BRICS and EU demand

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: FX Reserves, China, July

In one line: China’s foreign reserves climb in August amid weakening dollar and falling treasury yields

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, July 2024

In one line: A hefty fall; set for a sixth quarter-on-quarter decline.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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