- The ECB will likely open the door to further easing this week, teeing up a second rate cut, in September.
- Market expectations are converging on three cuts between now and March; the ECB is fine with this.
- One week ahead of the EZ Q2 GDP data, Nowcast models are subdued; we don’t buy them.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill’s speech last week signals the first rate cut is mostly data-independent.
- The hawks are shifting to argue for only gradual cuts, so back-to-back reductions will face stiff resistance.
- Mr. Pill suggested interest rates may need to remain persistently restrictive to keep inflation at the target.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: EZ industry likely came out of recession in Q2, by the skin of its teeth.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Likely the peak for 2024, barring any fresh shocks.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Chinese GDP misses expectations, hit by dull retail sales, despite resilient industrial output
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Slip in export growth should be short-lived.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
June slip in Indonesian export growth should be short-lived
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Depressed again by the shift to web-based data collection.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: Vegetable prices are rearing their ugly head, again; industry is back to a two-track growth, this time with consumer durables racing ahead.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Vegetable prices are rearing their ugly head, again; industry is back to a two-track growth, this time with consumer durables racing ahead.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Money growth is buffeted by corporate deposit outflows
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: China saw record trade surplus since 1992 on deteriorating import demand and steady export recovery
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Core is settled around 2%; headline should fall further from August onwards.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: China saw record trade surplus since 1992 on deteriorating import demand and steady export recovery
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Improving external demand supports Singapore's consensus-beating Q2 GDP
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Import prices signal a modest uptick in core goods CPI inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Summer distortions hide the underlying trend.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The June core PCE deflator likely undershot the Fed’s implied forecast pace for a second straight month.
- The jump in PPI trade services looks like noise; margins likely will come under renewed pressure in Q3.
- People expect higher unemployment and lower inflation; the Fed needs to ease, soon.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
