Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- Another week of hawkish data makes the MPC’s August cut look increasingly like a mistake.
- Inflation is too sticky and growth too strong for another rate cut any time soon.
- Market pricing has moved significantly closer to our call for the MPC to stay on hold for the rest of 2025.
- Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech flags a September easing, with more cuts likely to follow.
- High long-term Treasury yields reflect policy risks rather than the Fed losing its inflation credibility…
- …We think the Trump administration should step back and let the FOMC do its job.
- - CHINA’S WEAK DEMAND CONTRASTS WITH BUOYANT STOCKS
- - BOJ WAITING FOR DUST TO SETTLE BEFORE HIKING RATES
- - ROCKY EXPORT OUTLOOK KEY TO KOREAN GROWTH
The rebound in growth implied by the PMI looks too good to be true.
In one line: Down further below its long-run average.
Labor market slack is gradually building.
In one line: Down again but up over Q2 still.
In one line: Resilient to the latest rise in US tariffs, despite hit to foreign orders.
In one line: Resilient to the latest rise in US tariffs, despite hit to foreign orders.
In one line: Up, but output is still falling.
In one line: Up, but output is still falling.
In one line: Only little signs of a hit from higher US tariffs.
In one line: Only little signs of a hit from higher US tariffs.
India’s flash PMIs for August shrug off Trump’s 50% tariff threat
July’s weak employment report means inflation worries look overblown.
- In one line: House prices are recovering quickly from the stamp duty hike and will continue to rise in H2.
- In one line: Another hawkish blow to the MPC means no more cuts this year.
- In one line: A reassuring and much-needed turn in overall momentum and, especially, in electricity production.
- The S&P Global PMI points to underlying growth returning to the rapid pace seen in 2024.
- That seems unlikely to us, given the many headwinds to growth, mostly due to tariffs.
- We doubt the jump in services inflation suggested by the PMI will materialize either.
- India’s PMIs continue to shrug off the tariff noise— even the 50% threat—with the August data punchy…
- …Partial Q3 PMIs point to a continuation of near-7% GDP growth, but watch the slump in future output.
- Our final forecast for next week’s Q2 GDP report is 7%, implying only a minor cooling from 7.4% in Q1.
