- Output rose 0.4% month-to-month in May, putting GDP 1.5% higher than at the start of the year.
- We raise our Q2 GDP growth forecast to 0.6% quarter-to-quarter and see upside risk.
- Yesterday’s release supports our call for the MPC to wait until September to cut Bank Rate.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
In one line: Decent, but not enough to prevent a Q2 decline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
China’s producer deflation persistent, despite misleading improvement in headline
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Chinese Inflation is Cooling, Thanks to an Uneven Recovery
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Base effects pull Philippine trade growth back down to earth
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Auto insurance prices likely rebounded in June, driving a 0.3% increase in the core CPI...
- ...But we look for chunky falls in vehicle prices and a modest increase in core-core services prices.
- We look for a rise in jobless claims today, as auto plant and school closures overwhelm the seasonals.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil — Positive outlook amid improving conditions
- Mexico — Navigating turbulence
- Colombia — Reforms, challenges and signs of recovery
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Taiwan’s trade performance in June blew the consensus out of the water…
- …As export and import growth surprised hugely to the upside, thanks to the recovery in electronics.
- The Philippines’ trade deficit has been growing since the start of Q2; exports should pick up soon.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ private-sector balance sheets are healthy; this dulls the monetary policy transmission mechanism.
- The private sector’s interest-rate-sensitivity has almost halved compared to before the GFC.
- Strong private balance sheets, fiscal activism and labour-hoarding will keep ECB policy rates elevated.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Company insolvencies surged to a record high in 2023, but that exaggerates corporate distress.
- The liquidation rate remains far from its peak and rose mainly due to catch-up after a hiatus in 2020.
- We expect insolvencies to fall as GDP growth rebounds and the MPC begins cutting Bank Rate.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Core improvement amid weather-driven pressures.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Core improvement amid weather-driven pressures.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
A slight improvement from a weak base, but challenges remain.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Blowing the consensus out of the water.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Bad weather holds back retail sales again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
How long will the bounce in Indonesian sales last with confidence fading?
Philippine sales growth continues to fluctuate wildly around zero
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - Fears of a labor market downturn will supplant inflation worries at the Fed
- EUROZONE - Right wing in France suffers defeat, as do French pollsters
- UK - Huge Labour majority will usher in modestly better growth
- CHINA+ - PBoC preparing to boost long-term bond yields
- EM ASIA - June CPI laying the groundwork for BSP and BoT cuts next month
- LATAM - Brazil’s economic tightrope; the COPOM faces a balancing act
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Mr. Powell still wants more good inflation data, but the tiring job market is gaining more of his attention.
- The NFIB survey ticked up in June, but pressure on the economy from high rates remains intense.
- The pick-up in Redbook sales almost certainly overstates current momentum in consumers’ spending.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexico’s core inflation slows, hinting at rates cuts, despite weather-related pressures.
- Colombia’s core inflation continues to ease, paving the way for BanRep rate cuts…
- …but fiscal concerns and external challenges will likely limit the acceleration of the rate-cutting pace.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
