- Indonesian retail sales growth saw only a tepid rebound in May, to 2.1%, with confidence waning…
- …The only good news is that retailers’ sales expectations is finally seeing a turnaround.
- Sales momentum in the Philippines is even weaker, with no clear light at the end of the tunnel.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The fall in Eurozone house prices eased for the second straight quarter in Q1…
- ...and we see signs that demand is picking up sooner than we thought amid falling interest rates.
- We now think house prices will be broadly flat in 2024 after they slid by 1.2% in 2023.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- CPI inflation likely fell to 1.9% in June, from 2.0% in May, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- We expect June CPI services inflation to exceed the MPC’s forecast by the same 42bp margin as in May.
- Rate-setters whose June vote was a close call will be happy with the same services inflation miss as May.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Job gains are no longer “strong”; Powell might signal rates will be cut swiftly if the slowdown continues.
- Consumers are increasingly worried about losing their jobs, and for good reason.
- NFIB survey likely to suggest that small businesses remain under pressure from high rates.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Inflation undershot expectations in June, which likely will allow the central bank to cut rates further.
- Risks remain, though; electricity tariffs are set to rise, but soft domestic demand will help to ease the hit.
- Reduced pension-system uncertainty and benign global conditions will allow further rate normalisation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Overall Japanese wage growth remained sluggish in May, though manufacturing pay rose faster.
- China’s foreign reserves were hit by currency- valuation effects and equity market outflows in June.
- The PBoC’s additional OMO flexibility is likely signalling upcoming government-bond sales.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Marine Le Pen’s RN fell flat on its face in the French parliamentary elections. The centre (left) holds on.
- The path to a working government in France is unclear, but OAT-Bund spreads have likely peaked.
- Germany’s trade surplus jumped in May, due mainly to a crash in imports; the July Sentix dropped.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect PAYE employment to rise 5K in June, while the unemployment rate should hold at 4.4%.
- We think private-sector AWE will rise 0.6% month-to-month in May, as April’s NLW hike feeds through.
- Pay beating the MPC’s 0.2% forecast would support our call that it will wait until September to cut rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Volatile due to the general election, but pay growth seems to be rising.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Still consistent with a rebound in the PMI, despite falling.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Japan's overall wage growth still sluggish
Improvement narrowly confined to full-time manufacturing workers
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Foreign reserves hit by currency valuation effects and equity market outflows
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Weakening in private payroll growth points to multiple rate cuts in H2.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: Goods spending is not benefitting from the recovery in real incomes, yet.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Labour wins a huge majority but will need to move fast with policy changes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Exit poll projects large Labour majority.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Faster goods inflation pushes up the headline.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: A nasty plunge in manufacturing, but don’t forget rising services output.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
