- Colombia’s diplomatic team successfully averted a full-blown economic and political crisis with the US.
- Their Presidents’ social-media spat almost triggered a massive trade war; LatAm is watching.
- Mexico achieved a record trade surplus with the US in 2024 amid economic tensions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- China’s official PMIs unexpectedly fell in January; manufacturing activity dropped to a five-month low.
- The services PMI reversed December’s gain and fell back to the period-average prior to that month.
- Manufacturers and developers are optimistic about the outlook despite local and global headwinds.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- High gas prices and low inventories in the EU risk higher Eurozone inflation in Q2 and Q3.
- Russian gas imports will likely dwindle further; the US, Norway and Qatar can cover some of the gap…
- ...But at what price? And what will happen if Chinese or domestic US demand ramps up?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Average earnings growth was surprisingly strong in November, even accounting for statistical noise.
- PAYE signals a 4.8% annualised month-to-month gain in private-sector ex-bonus AWE in December 2024.
- Slowing settlements are consistent with private AWE growth easing to 4.0% in Q4 2025, matching our call.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Up marginally, supporting our view of a modest rebound in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Q4 leap in home sales in unlikely to last.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Under pressure, and threats abound.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Overshooting expectations, and the outlook remains difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Up, supporting our call for faster GDP growth in early 2025, but not enough to deter an ECB rate cut next week.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Up, supporting our call for faster GDP growth in early 2025, but not enough to deter an ECB rate cut next week.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Great, but beware the likely seasonal boost in services.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Great, but beware the likely seasonal boost in services.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Downturn stalled, but no upturn in sight.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Downturn stalled, but no upturn in sight.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
The BoJ hikes policy rate and indicates readiness for further tightening at a measured pace
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The BoJ hikes policy rate and indicates readiness for further tightening at a measured pace
Duncan WrigleyChina+
India’s key services PMI plunged to a 15-month low to start the year
A largely unwelcome consolidation of the Philippines’ trade deficit in late-2024
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- - CHINA’S Q4 ACTIVITY BUMP IS LIKELY TO FADE
- - BOJ IS KEEN TO NORMALISE RATES
- - BOK IS LIKELY TO RESUME CUTS, DESPITE POLITICAL MESS
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: New year relief, but still subdued.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
