- In one line: Should be just a temporary drop below the BoT’s target range.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The turn in Philippine inflation is finally here
Vehicle sales in Singapore continue to flatter headline retail sales
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Still weak but registrations will pick up later this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Two steps forward, one step back.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: More encouragement for the MPC to cut rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Private payroll growth slowed sharply in Q2; revisions could easily worsen the picture.
- Tight monetary policy is the primary cause; employment growth will slow further in Q3.
- Wage growth now is consistent with the 2% inflation target; the Fed will ease multiple times in H2.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s industrial sector is struggling, as the labour market continues to defy expectations.
- The COPOM faces tough decisions amid rising inflation and political pressure from President Lula.
- Fiscal concerns are mounting as the budget deficit is deepening, complicating monetary policy.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Extremely good CPI data for June, if like us you expect the BSP and the BoT to cut rates in August.
- Taiwanese headline inflation picked up in June on goods inflation, amid still-sticky services inflation.
- A continued improvement in external demand should see Singaporean GDP growth rise in Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Friday’s industrial production data for Germany, France and Spain made for difficult reading.
- The recovery in EZ manufacturing was still missing in Q2, but we look for better in H2.
- The trend in retail sales remains flat, but they still likely picked up in Q2, and services spending rose.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Keir Starmers’ huge majority will allow him to quickly enact supply side reforms, starting with planning.
- We expect an Autumn Budget to boost government borrowing £10-£20B a year.
- The MPC will still cut rates in September, but they will reduce rates only gradually after that.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We’re sticking with our forecast that payrolls rose by 160K in June, below the 190K consensus.
- The unemployment rate likely was unchanged at 4.0%, but large sampling error creates uncertainty.
- Neither the ISM or S&P services PMI is clearly better than the other; the truth likely lies between the two.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in May, as retail sales and manufacturing rebound.
- GDP is on track to increase 0.5% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- We expect growth to slow to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in H2 2024, still stronger than the MPC expects.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Swiss inflation edged lower, despite an uptick in services; a further, albeit marginal, fall is likely.
- We look for two more SNB rate cuts, taking the policy rate to 0.75% by year-end; markets see fewer cuts.
- The appointment of Martin Schlegel as the new SNB Chairman points to continuity in the rates outlook.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Ugly activity and employment numbers, further signs of disinflation.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Layoffs still trending higher, but the data will be noisy over the coming weeks.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
