In one line: Back up, but increase in Q1 will be smaller than in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Equipment investment likely to remain anemic at best.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
GROWTH HOLDS UP AND INFLATION RISES...
- …BUT US TARIFFS CAN UPEND THE OUTLOOK
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
CENTRAL BANKS FACE A COMPLEX EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT…
- …VIGILANCE AND POLICY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
THE ECB HAS ONLY ONE MORE CUT IN IT...
- ...ASSUMING JUST SMALL US TRADE-TARIFF INCREASES
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
INDIAN CONSUMPTION ON THE MEND, SLOWLY
- …US TARIFF FRONT-RUNNING SURFACES IN FEB. TRADE DATA
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Today’s PCE report likely will show a rebound in real consumption and a 0.4% rise in the core deflator.
- Threatened auto tariffs would likely raise the core price level by 0.2-to-0.4percentage points.
- Soaring gold imports imply a much smaller drag on Q1 GDP from net trade than headline data suggest.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- March IPCA-15 data show inflation rising due to temporary shocks in food and transportation costs.
- Inflation is likely to average 5.5% in Q2 before stabilising in H2, but wholesale prices signal upside risks.
- The current account deficit widened sharply, but FDI remains a positive sign, despite external noise.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- China appears to be prioritising RMB stability over rate cuts, after decent activity data at the start of the year.
- Industrial profits saw tangible improvements in the first two months, led by rising manufacturing demand.
- The stimulus-led profit growth recovery in China will face significant headwinds from rising trade tensions.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The US confirmed its wish to raise tariffs on imports of EU cars next week; car parts will also be included.
- These hikes, touted in February, are “baked in the cake” for our Q2 GDP baseline; the hit will be small.
- Money and credit data are improving and continue to point to faster EZ GDP growth.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Just the third February fall in clothes prices in 18 years dragged inflation below consensus.
- A March goods price rebound is a solid bet, so inflation will still likely surge to 3.5% in April.
- The MPC will have to stay cautious, especially as services inflation pressures remain stubborn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Erratic items drag down inflation, underlying pressures remain stubborn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices surge in January but the rush to beat higher stamp duty will fade.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Easing back; unemployment fears still high.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Reeling from the tariff threats.
Samuel TombsUS
In one line: Election result and fiscal stimulus boost sentiment.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Regional Fed surveys suggest that services sector activity, hiring and investment is slowing sharply.
- The message on inflation is mixed, but firms expect their pricing power to wane.
- February’s orders report provides further signs the recovery in equipment investment is already fading.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The EUR has risen against the USD ever since the EU and German fiscal announcements in March.
- Fundamentals, such as interest rate differentials, point to further strength ahead.
- We look for EURUSD to reach 1.10 at end-2025, and 1.15 at end-2026.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Chancellor Reeves cut spending to maintain £9.9B of headroom against her fiscal rules.
- OBR forecast changes and spending cuts were close to expectations and modest.
- Higher borrowing and back-loaded spending cuts are slightly hawkish for the MPC.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
