Expect a small rise in H2 sales, but the weakening labor market will constrain activity.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Clearer signs that services sector employment is rolling over.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Underlying claims have plateaued, and will probably slip back in the near term.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: CBI orders and prices rebound as expected in August.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI signals faster growth and slower inflation, but the employment balances will worry the MPC.
Samuel TombsUK
- Chair Powell probably will indicate at Jackson Hole that multiple rate cuts are likely this year.
- The S&P Global composite PMI has joined the raft of indicators pointing to weaker hiring.
- Existing home sales rebounded in July, but a sustained near-term recovery is unlikely.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Malaysian headline inflation benefited from food disinflation, which offset higher services inflation...
- …But this engine of disinflation is likely to stall in the coming months, resulting in the headline rising.
- We still expect the BNM to hold policy rates in 2024, as average inflation is below its forecast.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Bank of Korea held rates steady in August due to worries about household debt and financial stability.
- Cutting rates early could fuel asset prices in Seoul; a potential Fed cut complicates BoK’s easing decision.
- We still expect the MPB to cut rates at the October meeting, but it could be delayed until November.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The downturn in the EZ composite PMI was halted by the Olympics in France; only temporarily we think.
- The PMIs point to firming growth in services, while manufacturing is still stuck in recession.
- A big drop in Q2 wage growth seals the deal for a September cut, and helps our call for an October cut.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The PMI is now pointing to Q3 GDP rising by 0.3% quarter-to-quarter, below the MPC’s forecast.
- Falling inflation signalled by the August PMI as both input and output price balances drop.
- Firms are confident to hire again; the MPC will be wary of employment growth in a tight labour market.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Activity springs back up again thanks to the Olympics.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Activity springs back up again thanks to the Olympics.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Services boosted by the Olympics; manufacturing is sinking without a trace.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Services boosted by the Olympics; manufacturing is sinking without a trace.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect the MPC to agree in September that QT will continue at a £100B-a-year pace from October.
- The BoE has welcomed increased use of its short-term repo facility as part of a strategic shift…
- ...to a demand-driven reserves system, while small changes to active QT would be fine-tuning.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Construction output jumped in June but still fell over the second quarter as a whole…
- ...This is consistent with a drop in construction capex, which accounts for nearly half of investment in GDP.
- The outlook for the sector is bleak; it will remain a drag on growth for the rest of this year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
