In one line: China’s loan prime rates unchanged in August as banking NIM at record low
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China’s LPRs unchanged in August as banking NIM at record low
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Slowing industrial production highlights China’s slumping property sector and rising trade frictions
China’s retail sales rebound in July, but weak consumer confidence and property woes weigh on growth
Fixed investment falters amid infrastructure slowdown and weak private investment
China’s property sales activity and price growth remain weak
PBoC shifts to new monetary framework: MLF operations to be carried out on 25th of every month
Japan’s GDP surprises on the upside, with gains in both consumption and investment amid emerging risks
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s GDP surprises on the upside, with gains in both consumption and investment amid emerging risks.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s TSF data suggest weak demand for loans in the real economy
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Our Homebase model points to a 250K jump in August private payrolls, which looks implausible.
- Other labor market indicators are far less upbeat; we have pencilled in an increase of 125K.
- We expect a meagre rise in government payrolls this month, and see a sharp slowdown ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Thailand’s economy lost momentum in Q2, despite a hefty—but unsustainable—bounce in exports…
- …External demand looks set to stay lacklustre into 2025, weighing further on already-weak capex.
- We remain downbeat on growth, and still see the BoT cutting rates twice before year-end.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Negotiated wage growth likely eased in Q2 even as compensation per employee probably held steady.
- Hourly labour cost data are the wild card; we doubt they will prevent an ECB cut in September...
- ...But early Q3 indicators, pointing to a rebound in wage growth, cast a shadow over a cut in October.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC has shifted its focus away from inflation and wages to broader economic scenarios.
- Even rate-setters voting for an August cut placed considerable weight on the more hawkish scenario.
- Reduced data-sensitivity and the scenarios suggest gradual rate cuts, with the next one in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Surplus more than halves, but little reason for concern.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Unsustainable export bounce saves Thai Q2 GDP; domestic demand still lethargic
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A weather-related plunge in July, but residential construction set for a weak Q3.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Imports will rise back soon, we think.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- July’s drop in single-family starts was concentrated in the South, probably a hit from Hurricane Beryl...
- ..Still, the overhang of new home inventory points to a downturn in residential construction.
- Consumers’ confidence has picked up despite the stock market dip, pointing to solid spending growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Growth in Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports surprised to the upside in July.
- It was supported by a pickup in electronics exports, friendly base effects and non-monetary gold.
- Reversal in August is likely but the overall trajector y for exports will probably stay positive in Q3.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s Q2 GDP surprised to the upside; economic recovery is on a firmer footing than expected.
- Consumption ended four consecutive quarterly falls in Q2 on the back of first real wage gains since 2022.
- The BoJ is delighted to see more evidence of wage-price spiral; it provided the basis for July’s hike.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The Eurozone’s trade surplus rebounded in June, but net trade in goods likely dragged on growth in Q2.
- We’re expecting this net trade drag on growth to continue for up to 12 months.
- The trend in import growth, however, remains much weaker than implied by our consumption forecasts.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Retail sales volumes gained 0.5% month-to-month in July but were depressed by a large seasonal factor.
- We estimate that retail sales volumes are trending up at a 2.5% month-to-month annualised pace.
- Surveys and consumer confidence signal improving retail sales, while rate cuts will give a boost.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Lower mortgage rates came too late for this month's survey.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
