Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

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PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 June 2024

Tough start to Q2 for Singaporean consumption
No breach of the BSP’s inflation target range to see here

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 June 2024 US Monitor Dollar likely to depreciate as the Fed eases faster than other central banks

  • We expect EURUSD to weaken by 8% to 1.18 by year-end, as the Fed eases faster than the ECB.
  • Initial claims likely rose last week; public holidays depress them less now than seasonal adjustment assumes.
  • The ISM services index is an unreliable guide to activity, but a weak employment balance points to trouble ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

6 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Political noise and the Fed remain the key drivers

  • Brazilian Real — Tumbling amid policy uncertainty
  • Mexican Peso — Hurt by MORENA’s landslide victory
  • Argentinian Peso — Plunges amid policy uncertainty

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

6 June 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Singaporeans switch to spending abroad, while still saving more

  • Retail sales growth in Singapore disappointed hugely in April, falling to a new post-pandemic low...
  • …We suspect that a shift to overseas spending was the main culprit, as income growth still looks strong.
  • The risk of CPI re-breaching the BSP’s target range continues to wane, on fading non-core pressures.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 June 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's regular pay growth hits 30- year high, thanks to Shunt wage rises

  • Japan’s nominal wage growth rose in May as the Shuntō wage settlements started filtering through.
  • That said, we don’t expect a significant broadening of wage growth across sectors and to SME workers.
  • Stronger base-pay rises will please the BoJ, but the key is whether this translates into higher spending.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

6 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor The sovereign debt downgrade in France that 'never happened'

  • The French sovereign debt rating downgrade passed without fanfare, but is it a sign of things to come? 
  • Industrial production in France rose at the start of Q2 and looks on track for a rebound after a poor Q1. 
  • The PMIs suggest a mild cyclical upswing is now underway in the Eurozone economy. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 June 2024 UK Monitor The MPC will be encouraged by the PMI showing inflation slowing

  • The final composite PMI for May points to 0.25% quarter-to-quarter growth.
  • Firms are responding to rising output by hiring, suggesting official employment data will rebound soon.
  • The PMI indicates services inflation will slow ahead of the MPC’s August interest rate decision.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

Global Datanote: GDP, First Quarter, Brazil, 2024

  • In one line: A solid Q1, but conditions have worsened recently.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: GDP, First Quarter, Brazil, 2024

  • In one line: A solid Q1, but conditions have worsened recently.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

5 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Significant cracks still visible in Germany's labour market

  • The trend in German jobless claims points to a rise in the national unemployment rate to above 6%.
  • Surveys signal a rebound in employment growth, but the trend in vacancies is still depressed.
  • Real wage growth in Germany soared at the start of 2024, but vacancies point to downside risks.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, May

  • In one line: ASEAN’s main exporters are finally staging a revival… slowly.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 4 June 2024

ASEAN’s main exporters are finally staging a revival… slowly

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, May 2024

  • In one line: Retail sales bounce back from April’s catastrophe.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

5 June 2024 Global Monitor A landslide election result in Mexico

  • US - Core PCE numbers are improving, but more progress needed for rate cuts
  • EUROZONE - All set for a hawkish first 25bp rate cut by the ECB this week
  • UK - Forecast review: Persistence means patience for the MPC
  • CHINA+ - US tariffs on “new trio” to have limited impact on Chinese exports
  • EM ASIA - The devil’s in the details of India’s consensus-beating Q1 GDP print
  • LATAM - Landslide victory in Mexico gives MORENA strong political capital

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

5 June 2024 US Monitor The Q2 GDPNow forecast is still a lot of noise and not much signal

  • The drop in the Atlanta Fed Q2 GDPNow estimate says very little; it's still far more model than tracking.
  • April's JOLTS report brings further signs of labor market normalization. Lower wage growth is likely to follow.
  • ADP's data and the employment index of the ISM services survey are hopeless indicators of payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

5 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's economic momentum hits a speed bump after promising Q1

  • Brazil’s economic rebound faces a number of headwinds despite solid Q1 growth.
  • High interest rates and severe floods will dampen Brazil’s growth prospects over the coming quarters.
  • Inflation in Peru cooled in May, paving the way for further rate cuts amid policy uncertainty.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

5 June 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor So much for the absurdly high expectations for Modi 3.0

  • The BJP’s disappointing result in the 2024 election means the risk of coalition politics in India is back.
  • The PMI for ASEAN rebounded well in May, thanks to the fragile recovery of the region’s key exporters.
  • Indonesia’s softer-than-expected May CPI bolsters our dovish 2024 view on rates and inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

5 June 2024 UK Monitor CPI inflation should fall to 2.0% in May as goods inflation slows

  • We expect CPI inflation to fall to 2.0% in May, from 2.3% in April, 0.1pp above the MPC’s forecast.
  • Almost all the slowdown comes from core goods and services, as large base effects reduce annual inflation.
  • We expect services inflation to slow but still exceed the MPC’s forecast by 0.2pp.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, May

In one line: Korea’s export recovery continues, led by strong ICT demand and lumpy ship exports

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

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