Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- We think GDP grew by 2.2% in Q2, but we expect a weaker second half as consumption softens.
- A 2.7% rise in the core PCE deflator should reassure the Fed that the 3.7% spike in Q1 was a blip.
- The further uptick in the S&P Global Composite PMI probably overstates the economy's strength.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- India’s final 2024/25 budget sees a smaller 4.9%-of-GDP deficit than the 5.1% interim target…
- …But this ‘improvement’ is largely because of a better starting point and the RBI’s dividend.
- The real good news is a more realistic tax estimate and a continuation of the focus on capex.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s July flash manufacturing index sank to the lowest in four months, hit by the auto safety scandal.
- Higher import prices, because of the weak JPY, are driving up business costs.
- The service sector returned to growth, enjoying a likely brief spending boost from a one-off tax rebate.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The EZ composite PMI is on the verge of falling below 50; will it matter for Q3 growth? Probably not.
- Manufacturing remains the weak spot, according to the PMIs, while services are still relatively robust.
- The EZ output price PMI in services fell further in July; inflation will follow, eventually.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The July PMI is consistent with Q3 GDP growth of 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- But surging new orders and future business expectations suggest the PMI will leap in August.
- Slowing output prices will comfort the MPC, but stronger hiring could keep wage growth elevated.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- - CHINA’S Q2 SLOWING JUSTIFIES MORE TARGETED STIMULUS
- - JAPAN’S FALTERING GROWTH GIVING BOJ A HEADACHE
- - BOK UNLIKELY TO MOVE EARLY, GIVEN CHIP EXPORT BOOM
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Stronger real wage growth supports pick up in June retail sales.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - It’s much too early to make election-driven changes to macro forecasts
- EUROZONE - The ECB is less sure about a September rate cut than markets
- UK - Services inflation too strong for the MPC to cut rates in August
- CHINA+ - PBoC swings into action with early rate cuts to support growth
- EM ASIA - Malaysian 2024 GDP growth likely to beat government’s forecast
- LATAM - Mexico, Colombia: mixed inflation signals amid rate cut prospects
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Q2 GDP likely rose at a faster rate than in Q1 but well below the rapid growth seen in 2023.
- A further slowdown lies ahead, as high interest rates bite harder and the personal saving rate normalizes.
- The earlier release of advance trade and inventories data should make GDP forecasts more accurate.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Latin American trade balances have improved amid currency weakness and commodity-price rebounds.
- Brazil, Chile, Peru and Argentina are posting trade surpluses; deficits narrow in Colombia and Mexico.
- Regional economic stabilisation efforts are leading to results in external trade accounts, but risks remain.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Headline inflation in Singapore fell sharply in June, mainly benefiting from lower COE prices...
- ...But the stickiness of core inflation should keep the MAS from loosening policy for the rest of 2024.
- Taiwanese retail sales growth picked up in June, but weak real wage growth is clouding the H2 outlook.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Q2 GDP data due next week will likely show a repeat of the Q1 figures in Germany, Italy and Spain…
- ...while GDP growth in France has probably doubled, to 0.4%, as services spending rocketed.
- So, we now think EZ GDP rose by 0.4% on the quarter, after 0.3% in Q1, 0.1pp higher than previously.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The wide current account deficit reflects elevated fuel import costs and weak investment income.
- Neither factor is likely to improve in the near future, so we expect the large current account deficit to persist.
- That will hold sterling back, as will the weakest international investment position in 37 years.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
MALAYSIA'S AND VIETNAM’S ‘HOT’ Q2 IN CONTEXT
- …FOOD PRICE PRESSURES IN INDIA ARE REBUILDING; UGH
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- All bets are off for November, so it makes little sense to change macro forecasts at this point.
- The further fall in pending home sales in May points to a steep decline in existing home sales in June.
- We expect a weaker labor market and ongoing lack of supply to mean sales remain subdued for some time.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The Mexican economy sent positive signals in May amid domestic political uncertainty and global risk.
- The service and construction sectors drove May’s growth; retail sales reflect an economic deterioration.
- Election-linked fiscal stimulus will wane; high rates and political risk are clouding the economic outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The PBoC yesterday took markets by surprise with a 10bp policy rate cut to support the economy.
- Policymakers are prioritising growth support after the disappointing Q2 GDP outturn.
- President Xi’s comments confirm the ‘advanced manufacturing first’ reform strategy.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- We’re flying half-blind on Q2 GDP data in Germany, but we’re lifting our forecasts slightly, all the same.
- Construction investment was a drag on growth in Q2, but consumers’ spending likely rebounded.
- Our forecasts for Germany for the rest of 2024 see domestic demand now rebounding.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
