- The spike in the core PCE deflator is over, but Fed officials will want to see more data before they relax.
- Consumers’ spending is on course for another modest 2%-ish increase in the second quarter.
- Manufacturing is in better shape than implied by the grim Chicago PMI; auto sales headed for Q2 bounce.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
A housing market recovery is still some way off.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
GDP details better than the headline, but growth is slowing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: The EZ labour market is in a good spot.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The National Living Wage hike will push private-sector regular pay to a solid 0.8% month-to-month April rise.
- But survey indicators continue to signal gradually slowing wage growth, as recruitment difficulties ease.
- Average weekly earnings growth should slow decisively in H2 2024 as the NLW distortions fade.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Inflation in the Eurozone likely rose a touch in May, to 2.5%, in line with the consensus.
- The EZ labour market is in rude health but poses no threat to the slowdown in wages and inflation, yet.
- The Swiss economy performed better than initially estimated in Q1, boosted by services.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Jump in services inflation stands out like a sore thumb.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: German core and headline inflation rebounded in May.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Looking up in Germany, but stalling in France.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
