- We expect GDP growth of 0.3% quarter-to-quarter for the rest of the year, after the 0.6% increase in Q1.
- Sticky services prices and energy effects mean we see inflation rising to 2.8% by Q4 2024.
- We now expect the first Bank Rate cut in August, then once per quarter thereafter.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Services inflation in Germany jumped in May; it will be grist to the mill of ECB hawks urging caution.
- Money supply growth in the Eurozone accelerated further in April, but lending growth remains slow.
- German consumer confidence adds to our optimism that a Q2 rebound in consumption is coming.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- China’s industrial profit growth was unchanged in April; the recovery is weaker than previously thought.
- A slowing reflation cycle is to blame, but also excess capacity and rising input costs.
- Manufacturing profits remain solid, but expect more policy support for the economic recovery.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- US - Indicators pointing to a worsening labor market still in the majority
- EUROZONE - German GDP growth will slow in Q2, but the recovery is durable
- UK - Services inflation surprise means MPC will wait until August to cut
- CHINA+ - BoK signals delay to rate cuts on rising inflation risks
- EM ASIA - Here comes the downshift in Indian GDP growth from 8%-plus
- LATAM - Banxico navigates sticky headline inflation amid slowing growth
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
A decent bounce, but the headwinds to consumption are mounting.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Opinion polls differ widely, but they all suggest Labour will win a large majority in the July 4 general election.
- PM Sunak’s attempts to convert undecided older voters may be hurt by his poor approval ratings.
- The BRC Shop Price Index drives up our May CPI inflation forecast to 2.1%, from 2.0% previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Some ECB policymakers are trying to keep the July rate cut alive; it likely will die this week, all the same.
- We’re lifting our growth forecasts for France to take into account the boost from the Paris Olympics.
- The inventory cycle in France will soon turn up, lifting GDP growth, even factoring in declining net exports.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Brazil’s May inflation data support a 25bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on June 19, but risks linger…
- …The floods in the south of the country have had a limited impact so far, but the hit will be felt soon.
- Inflation expectations are on the rise; a further deterioration would limit the central bank’s options.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- State and local government investment spending has slowed sharply; soon it will fall outright…
- ...Both tax revenues and federal government payments to S&L are falling; cashflow is evaporating.
- The rebound in consumers' confidence likely will prove unsustainable if job growth weakens as we expect.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: On hold, but rate cuts will resume soon, assuming the MXN stabilises.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
Better headline numbers, but the underlying trend is still weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Methodological changes do not explain all the fall in the Michigan survey measure of consumers' confidence...
- ...Fewer people expect the Fed to ease soon, while layoff fears have grown; slower spending growth lies ahead.
- Equipment investment looks set for a weak second quarter, despite better-than-expected May orders.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Chile’s BCCh slowed its rate cutting pace to 50bp, citing lagged inflation pressures.
- It kept a relatively dovish tone, however, pointing to further easing in coming meetings, as FX fears ease.
- Board reaffirms data-dependent approach, highlights “clexibility” for future decisions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Singapore’s headline and core inflation both appear to be stabilising, but unfortunately at a high rate...
- ...above the MAS’ comfort level, implying that any loosening of policy would be in Q4, at the earliest.
- Malaysian headline inflation is likely to rise from now on, averaging slightly over 2% for the year.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- German GDP growth was propelled by construction and net exports in Q1; neither will be sustained…
- …but growth in manufacturing capex is bottoming out and real income growth is accelerating.
- We think GDP growth will slow in Q2, to 0.1%, as construction investment and net exports fall back.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The collapse in retail sales volumes in April cuts 0.1pp from GDP growth…
- … but the wet weather and an odd ONS seasonal factor drove some of the sharp fall in April retail sales.
- Retail sales should bounce back strongly in May, and therefore we leave our GDP forecast unchanged.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Gradual rate cuts ahead; data to guide pace.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Gradual rate cuts ahead; data to guide pace.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Consumers will spend more as their financial situation improves.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK