- Our final Q3 GDP growth forecast for India sees it collapsing further to 6.0%, from 6.7% in Q2…
- …Falling short of the RBI’s view for a bounce to 7.0% and keeping the door open to a December rate cut.
- October CPI was very hot, but food inflation—and, by extension, the headline—likely has peaked.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ food inflation has been edging up in recent months, mostly due to base effects.
- Factory-gate prices suggest it will continue to rise though; the 2022-to-23 shock will persist in the data.
- Higher food inflation will keep the headline elevated, supporting our call for higher ECB rates for longer.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- CPI inflation likely rose to 2.2% in October, from 1.7% in September, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- The rise will be driven by Ofgem’s 9.5% energy utility price-cap hike and a small rise in services inflation.
- Rebounding airfares and hotel price inflation should boost services, but both are highly uncertain.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Gradually easing labour market will allow the MPC to keep cutting rates gradually
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Core firmer; upside risks to electricity tariffs?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Frustratingly slow recovery in Indonesian retail sales continues
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Core retail sales usually struggle after hurricanes, and warm weather likely weighed on clothing sales.
- Carryover from Q3 will support growth in consumption in Q4, but expect slower gains from here.
- Credit conditions remain very restrictive, as banks have continued to tighten lending standards.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- US - Mr. Trump’s win likely slams the door on rapid Fed normalization next year
- EUROZONE - Early elections in Germany will pave the way for looser fiscal policy
- UK - A cautious MPC will cut rates once per quarter at most
- CHINA+ - China refrains from knee-jerk response to Mr. Trump’s election win
- EM ASIA - GDP growth in Indonesia slips below 5% in Q3, as we predicted
- LATAM - LatAm central banks to adopt a hawkish stance post-US election
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Indonesian retail sales growth is faltering—again—amid low real wage growth and fading confidence…
- …Sentiment has yet to see any rise despite falling inflation and the promise of a new government.
- Job expectations are still deteriorating the most; soft consumption looks set to continue in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- German inflation rebounded in October, lifted by rising energy, food and services inflation.
- Energy inflation will climb further in November and December; spot electricity prices are soaring.
- Core HICP inflation should fall fractionally in November, but the national rate should be stable.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A gently easing labour market will allow the MPC to keep cutting rates only gradually.
- The unemployment rate surged in September, but that was data noise; the trend remains a slow rise.
- Wage growth is still proving stubborn, as the labour market remains tight, even if it has loosened.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- China credit demand growth hit a record low in October, with TSF growth at its weakest since 2003.
- Loans to the real economy fell further due to slowing corporate and household borrowing.
- The economic support measures so far have given China’s credit demand limited uplift.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Germany could head to the polls as soon as January, if enough paper can be found to print the ballots.
- Polls point to a grand coalition between the SPD and CDU/CSU as the most likely outcome.
- We still think new elections in Germany will pave the way for a more pro-growth fiscal policy.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US tariffs of 10% on imports would have a trivial direct impact on UK GDP.
- But the UK would be highly exposed to global trade disruption after likely retaliation against US tariffs.
- Tariffs would be stagflationary for the UK, causing the MPC to cut interest rates more slowly.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
Consumers in high spirits pre-election.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Headline inflation rebounds as electricity tariffs rise.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Headline inflation rebounds as electricity tariffs rise.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
