PCE components rose rapidly; on course for a 0.30% core PCE increase
Samuel TombsUS
The softening in the labor market remains very gradual.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: A solid Q3, but downside risks have emerged.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A solid Q3, but downside risks have emerged.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Oil imports are seeing an impressive—but likely temporary—revival.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Q3 GDP increase confirmed, despite yet another drag from industry.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: The RICS price balance shrugs off Budget uncertainty to rise in October.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Food prices are still the main headache at the WPI level in India, too
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Consistent with a core PCE print on the 0.2-to-0.3% borderline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Recent data indicate Brazil’s Q3 GDP growth should be strong, but worries are mounting for 2025.
- Lula’s government is facing pressure to implement fiscal adjustments to prevent a downturn in H1.
- Banxico faces uncertainty as external factors complicate its future decisions on rate adjustments.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- China’s consumer inflation is dragged down by volatile food and energy prices, but core prices are improving.
- Producer deflation steepened, masking construction-material price rises, likely due to stimulus demand.
- Mr. Trump’s US election victory will depress Chinese growth and likely keep inflation subdued for longer.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- EZ GDP and employment beat forecasts in Q3; we expect both to ease in Q4…
- ...But neither will slow enough to convince the ECB to ramp up the pace of easing.
- EZ industry remains in a rut and will again be a drag on growth in Q4, even if US firms front-load orders.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Similar to the market, we think the UK Budget and Mr. Trump’s election will boost UK inflation and rates.
- But we consider the sell-off in gilts overdone, with the market pricing only two rate cuts by August.
- Gilt yields will likely stay elevated near term, but we expect 10-year yields to drop to 4.1% by end-2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A December rate cut is only just barely alive; a weak Q3 GDP print could still sway things.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A December rate cut is only just barely alive; a weak Q3 GDP print could still sway things.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
October's improvement mostly reflects politics.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Brazil — Hit by global and domestic uncertainty
- Mexico — Trump 2.0 hurting prospects
- Colombia — Uncertainty looming large
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The US election result signals economic challenges for LatAm, amid rising inflation and interest rates.
- Peru’s BCRP has adopted a cautious stance due to global uncertainty and potential US tariff impacts.
- Chile is facing deteriorating economic conditions as inflation surges and the CLP weakens sharply.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
