Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Consumers are back in business.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices rise as mortgage rates look set to fall again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to fall to 1.9% in June, from 2.0% in May, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- Inflation will be lowered by falling food inflation and a slight easing in the pace of services price gains.
- We expect services inflation to exceed the MPC’s forecast by the same margin as in May.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Headline inflation fell marginally in June, but the core was stable; no rate cut in July, but September is on.
- Rising global shipping costs present little upside threat to core goods inflation, for now.
- Services inflation will remain hot in the near term, but surveys point to widening downside risks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Chile’s economy is struggling with weak domestic demand, despite a resilient labour market.
- Activity likely will gather speed in H2, thanks to lower interest rates, but downside threats remain.
- Peru’s headline inflation picture looks benign, but core remains sticky; BCRP faces policy challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Indonesian inflation fell more quickly than expected in June, to 2.5%, as food disinflation intensified…
- …Bolstering our below-consensus CPI and BI rate forecasts; we still expect 50bp of cuts in Q4.
- The ongoing rise in manufacturing momentum in ASEAN looks durable, with activity more balanced.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Korea’s June headline manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level since April 2022.
- Exports continued to power ahead in June, thanks to semiconductor exports for AI applications.
- Rising import costs boost our conviction that the BoK will delay its first policy rate cut until Q4.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Chair Powell sounds more optimistic on inflation, but wants to see no further rise in unemployment.
- We expect initial claims above the consensus for the fifth time in six weeks; summer data will be volatile.
- The June ISM services survey will probably provide further signs of disinflation ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- In one line: Manufacturing continues to recover solidly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The Caixin manufacturing PMI continued to outpace the official index in June…
- …reflecting better performance among light industries and high-tech than heavy industries.
- The construction index was hit by extreme weather conditions, masking any stimulus impact.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- GDP growth in Vietnam leapt to 6.9% in Q2, easily beating all expectations; we now see 6.5% for 2024.
- That said, industry and services remain historically sub-par, and industry is likely to face a tougher H2.
- The tourism recovery is still going strong, helping services, but the credit data are raising red flags.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- BanRep has cut rates in a split decision, balancing inflation concerns with growth expectations.
- We expect further rate cuts in H2, assuming stable policy/political risk and benign external conditions.
- The labour market remains resilient, but weakening key sectors indicate challenges ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Revisions to Homebase data and the latest business surveys support our 125K private payrolls forecast.
- High rates are increasingly subduing construction; private fixed investment likely was unchanged in Q2.
- Manufacturing continues to struggle, with little sign of that changing anytime soon.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Markets are rallying on the prospect of no RN majority in France, but it’s bit too soon to cheer.
- Eurozone inflation fell further in June, and risks are tilted towards a downside surprise.
- German core inflation is now on a near-straight path towards 2% by the end of the year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Money and credit data for May suggest consumption and investment will drive brisk GDP growth.
- Consumers’ reducing the amount they save to pre-Covid norms suggests they are willing to spend.
- Firms raised £10.4B of external finance in the past three months, above the £7.2B 2015-to-19 average.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Still stagnating, no recovery in sight.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Struggling as domestic demand falters.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Struggling as domestic demand falters.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Soft, and further declines are likely over the summer.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Headline and core inflation fell in June.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
