Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

8 November 2024 Eurozone Monitor Early elections in Germany will pave the way for looser fiscal policy

  • Early elections are coming in Germany; will they pave the way for looser fiscal policy in 2025? We think so. 
  • The addition of Germany to EZ retail sales data led to upward revisions to most months back to April… 
  • ...Further strength is likely in Q4, but the recession in industry rumbles on, and headwinds are mounting.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 November 2024 UK Monitor A cautious MPC will cut rates once per quarter at most

  • The MPC cut Bank Rate by 25bp in an eight-to-one vote, matching consensus expectations.
  • But the MPC raised its inflation forecasts more than expected, and the minutes read more cautiously.
  • We change our BoE call, now expecting three 25bp rate cuts in 2025, compared to four previously. 

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, EZ, September 2024

In one line: German data included, EZ retail story rosier than previously thought

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: German elections, industrial production & trade, September 2024

In one line: Fiscal stimulus in Germany? — Manufacturing and net trade stumbled at the end of Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, November, 2024

  • In one line: A bold 50bp hike to bring inflation expectations in check.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, October 2024

  • In one line: 

    Consumers and businesses hold back on purchases of vehicles as the Budget loomed.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, October 2024

  • In one line: Retail sales growth falls according to the BRC, but it should improve

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

7 November 2024 Eurozone Monitor A Trump presidency is inflationary, also for the Eurozone

  • A Trump presidency is more of an inflation threat to the EZ economy than a growth threat. 
  • We’re sticking with our call for the ECB to ease by less than markets expect next year. 
  • Will EZ export orders jump in the final stretch of Q4 as foreign firms scramble to beat potential tariffs?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 November 2024 UK Monitor US election result supports more gradual rate cuts

  • Mr. Trump’s promise of higher tariffs and tax cuts should prove stagflationary for the UK.
  • The MPC will focus on the inflation boost, because inflation expectations are elevated.
  • We expect CPI inflation to rise to 2.2% in October, from 1.7% in September, as utility prices increase.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, October 2024

  • In one line: The PMI falls but still shows solid activity.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, October 2024

In one line: PMI-suggested stagnation unlikely but Trump win bodes ill for already-weak demand for manufactured goods.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 November 2024

Vietnamese exports are once again losing momentum
The softening in ‘official’ retail sales growth in Vietnam is far from over
The impact of Yagi on Vietnamese food inflation continues to be felt
The ghost of the short-lived previous administration pushes Thai inflation up further in October
Philippine sales had a forgetful Q3 at the end of the day; all eyes on tomorrow's GDP release
An abysmal September effectively has written off Q3 for Philippine exports

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 November 2024 China+ Monitor China's service sector ticks up, thanks to policy lift to sentiment

  • China’s October Caixin services PMI points to stronger activity in the month.
  • Services firms’ sentiment is reviving, as policy support lifts consumption and some property sales.
  • But the longevity of this burgeoning rebound hinges on further policy support, with news likely on Friday.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, October

In one line: Korea’s export momentum wanes in October amid despite semiconductor boost

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, October

In one line: China’s Caixin manufacturing PMi rebounds as stimulus starts to take effect

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, Korea, October

In one line: Korea’s manufacturing sector sees mixed signals as PMI holds steady in October

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

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