- In one line: Overdue crash in oil imports masks a further—welcome—rise in non-oil imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Likely the peak for 2024, barring any fresh shocks.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Vegetable prices are rearing their ugly head, again; industry is back to a two-track growth, this time with consumer durables racing ahead.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Deficit hit by lagged oil-price effects, which will now unwind.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Upstream core price pressures are now clearly reviving.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Some green shoots on food inflation; IP appears to be breaking out of its recent stagnation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Exports—alone—steal the show in Q1, papering over a continued slowdown in domestic demand.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: The deficit miss isn’t that bad, seasonal effects aside; don’t put too much stock into the jump in imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A 13-month high, as upstream deflationary forces wane.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Food inflation remains frustratingly sticky; clearer signs that core has bottomed-out.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Soft, as we cautioned, and the big picture isn’t looking great either.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Decent, and the drag from refined petroleum products should reverse in the short run.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Little real good news from the smallest deficit in nearly a year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A simultaneous easing in manufactured products and fuel & power deflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: LPG price cut pulls inflation down below 5% for the first time since October; don’t be fooled by the jolt in IP growth.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A y/y bounce inflated by base effects, but trends at the margin are finally turning.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A one-off, or is the lumpy slide in non-oil imports finally over?
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Delaying our first RBI rate cut call to August; industry is floundering, forget the H2 2023 ’strength’ in GDP.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: We repeat; forget the discrepancy-inflated headline, India’s main engine is still stuttering.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia