- In one line: Export-led manufacturing recovery powers investment growth.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Q2 GDP growth in Taiwan surprised to the upside, coming in at 5.1%, after 6.6% in Q1...
- ...Benefiting from higher external demand for AI-related manufacturing and investment.
- We now expect stronger 2024 GDP growth, at 4.1%, compared to 3.7% previously.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The output price sub-indices of India’s July PMIs spike d, but it would be premature to raise a red flag.
- Indonesia’s July CPI should see inflation falling below the 2.5% target, on further food disinflation.
- We look for a small drop in ASEAN’s July PMI, as a couple of the big exporters look overstretched.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A big bounce in net goods trade will help Thailand's Q2 GDP
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s final 2024/25 budget sees a smaller 4.9%-of-GDP deficit than the 5.1% interim target…
- …But this ‘improvement’ is largely because of a better starting point and the RBI’s dividend.
- The real good news is a more realistic tax estimate and a continuation of the focus on capex.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Stronger real wage growth supports pick up in June retail sales.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Headline inflation in Singapore fell sharply in June, mainly benefiting from lower COE prices...
- ...But the stickiness of core inflation should keep the MAS from loosening policy for the rest of 2024.
- Taiwanese retail sales growth picked up in June, but weak real wage growth is clouding the H2 outlook.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
MALAYSIA'S AND VIETNAM’S ‘HOT’ Q2 IN CONTEXT
- …FOOD PRICE PRESSURES IN INDIA ARE REBUILDING; UGH
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysia’s advance GDP growth print for Q2 was much stronger than consensus, at 5.8%...
- ... As construction activity picked up and stronger external demand boosted manufacturing growth.
- We still see GDP growth in 2024 at 5.2%, higher than the government’s forecast of 4-to -5%.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Base effects dominate Malaysian trade figures in June
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian headline export growth slowed in June on weaker re-export and electronics growth…
- …Adverse base effects dominated the headline damage though, masking a monthly improvement.
- The electronics recovery and stronger commodities exports should support headline growth in H2.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Another month, another hold; we still see cuts in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Non-oil domestic export growth in Singapore ended H2 on a disappointing note…
- …As electronics and non-monetary gold exports slumped, even as intermediate goods rose.
- Electronics exports look unlikely to regain May’s high, but H2 should still see a growth recovery.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Overdue crash in oil imports masks a further—welcome—rise in non-oil imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Two-way goods trade in Indonesia rebounded robustly in Q2, mainly thanks to EM demand…
- …But the tourism recovery is still waning; expect a 0.9pp net trade lift to GDP, up from -0.2pp in Q1.
- Food price pressures in India are building again, forcing us to raise our 2024 and 2025 CPI outlook.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Likely the peak for 2024, barring any fresh shocks.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
