June slip in Indonesian export growth should be short-lived
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Vegetable prices are rearing their ugly head, again; industry is back to a two-track growth, this time with consumer durables racing ahead.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Improving external demand supports Singapore's consensus-beating Q2 GDP
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singapore’s Q2 GDP beat the consensus thanks to the recovery in goods-producing industries...
- ...Powered by an upswing in manufacturing and robust construction activity.
- We raise our 2024 GDP growth forecast to 2.7% from 2.4% previously, up from 1.1% in 2023.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Optimistic on growth but increased uncertainty on inflation.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- BNM held its policy rate this month, as it waits to see the impact of the diesel-subsidy removal…
- …A relatively strong growth outlook is providing it with the bandwidth for a continued pause.
- Malaysian GDP growth likely improved to 4.8% year-over-year in Q2, from 4.2% in Q1.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Base effects pull Philippine trade growth back down to earth
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s trade performance in June blew the consensus out of the water…
- …As export and import growth surprised hugely to the upside, thanks to the recovery in electronics.
- The Philippines’ trade deficit has been growing since the start of Q2; exports should pick up soon.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Blowing the consensus out of the water.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
How long will the bounce in Indonesian sales last with confidence fading?
Philippine sales growth continues to fluctuate wildly around zero
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian retail sales growth saw only a tepid rebound in May, to 2.1%, with confidence waning…
- …The only good news is that retailers’ sales expectations is finally seeing a turnaround.
- Sales momentum in the Philippines is even weaker, with no clear light at the end of the tunnel.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Faster goods inflation pushes up the headline.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Should be just a temporary drop below the BoT’s target range.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The turn in Philippine inflation is finally here
Vehicle sales in Singapore continue to flatter headline retail sales
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Extremely good CPI data for June, if like us you expect the BSP and the BoT to cut rates in August.
- Taiwanese headline inflation picked up in June on goods inflation, amid still-sticky services inflation.
- A continued improvement in external demand should see Singaporean GDP growth rise in Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian inflation fell more quickly than expected in June, to 2.5%, as food disinflation intensified…
- …Bolstering our below-consensus CPI and BI rate forecasts; we still expect 50bp of cuts in Q4.
- The ongoing rise in manufacturing momentum in ASEAN looks durable, with activity more balanced.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Vietnam leapt to 6.9% in Q2, easily beating all expectations; we now see 6.5% for 2024.
- That said, industry and services remain historically sub-par, and industry is likely to face a tougher H2.
- The tourism recovery is still going strong, helping services, but the credit data are raising red flags.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
ASEAN manufacturing ends H1 on a solid note
Food disinflation in Indonesia intensifies, returning the headline rate back to BI’s target
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
