UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line:Surging debt interest costs raise borrowing, leaving the Chancellor with little headroom.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Gradually slowing underlying inflation means only gradual cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices fall marginally in September but the trend remains up.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Ballooning debt interest costs pushed public sector borrowing higher in October.
- The gilt yield rise since the Budget would almost wipe out the headroom against the fiscal rules.
- Ms. Reeves will need to raise taxes or cut spending if market interest rates remain at current levels.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Ofgem’s 9.5% utility price cap hike raised CPI inflation above the MPC’s 2% target in October.
- CPI inflation should rise to 2.6% in November and 3.0% next April, on duty hikes and energy prices…
- ...ruling out a December rate cut; but a February rate cut is likely as underlying services inflation slows.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC is forecasting private pay growth, excluding bonuses, to slow to 3.25% in Q4 2025.
- But the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio is high and rising CPI inflation in 2025 could boost pay…
- ...so we expect private ex-bonus AWE growth to slow to 4.0% in Q4 2025, with risks skewed up.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC is rightly encouraged by inflation expectations falling well below their 2022 peak.
- The BoE’s expectations survey is biased down, however, and YouGov expectations recently surged.
- Consumers are more attentive to inflation now; the MPC needs to be cautious as inflation rises in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:The underlying GDP trend is stronger than the headline fall, which was dragged down by a huge erratic fall in IT.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The headline trade deficit widens as erratics and metals give up their surpluses.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Erratic falls in IT and industrial production output led GDP to fall by 0.1% month-to-month in September.
- Solid consumption and investment in Q3 suggest stronger fundamentals than headline GDP implies.
- GDP growth should rebound to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q4, matching the MPC’s forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The RICS price balance shrugs off Budget uncertainty to rise in October.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Similar to the market, we think the UK Budget and Mr. Trump’s election will boost UK inflation and rates.
- But we consider the sell-off in gilts overdone, with the market pricing only two rate cuts by August.
- Gilt yields will likely stay elevated near term, but we expect 10-year yields to drop to 4.1% by end-2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely rose to 2.2% in October, from 1.7% in September, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- The rise will be driven by Ofgem’s 9.5% energy utility price-cap hike and a small rise in services inflation.
- Rebounding airfares and hotel price inflation should boost services, but both are highly uncertain.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Gradually easing labour market will allow the MPC to keep cutting rates gradually
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- A gently easing labour market will allow the MPC to keep cutting rates only gradually.
- The unemployment rate surged in September, but that was data noise; the trend remains a slow rise.
- Wage growth is still proving stubborn, as the labour market remains tight, even if it has loosened.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- US tariffs of 10% on imports would have a trivial direct impact on UK GDP.
- But the UK would be highly exposed to global trade disruption after likely retaliation against US tariffs.
- Tariffs would be stagflationary for the UK, causing the MPC to cut interest rates more slowly.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The REC weakens slightly in October, but the MPC downplay the survey now due to its poor correlation with official data.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Stubborn wages and prices keep the MPC cautious
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: More cautious MPC will cut once-a-quarter at most.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- GDP should rise 0.2% month-to-month in September, and 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q3.
- We expect the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.1% in September, and wage growth to slow.
- A massive labour-market surprise would be needed to shift the MPC, because the data are unreliable.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
