UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Easing borrowing costs drive car registrations higher in February.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP to fall 0.1% month-to-month in January, as consumers stayed away from the pub.
- Manufacturing output should also unwind from the sharp increase seen in December.
- We continue to look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q1, but downside risks are building.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The catastrophic PMI jobs balance suggests the UK is heading into recession.
- But the PMI exaggerates weakness by measuring the breadth rather than extent of job changes.
- Disinflation is over as the PMI shows firms passing payroll tax hikes and strong wages into prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to stay at 3.0% in February, 0.2pp higher than the MPC’s forecast.
- Food inflation should remain firm, while BRC non-food shop prices are rising faster than in 2024.
- We now expect CPI inflation to peak at 3.8% in September; 4.0%-plus is possible.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers are spending again but uncertainty hits investment.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Surging global uncertainty hammers manufacturing output, but watch rising price pressures.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The rise in credit-card borrowing in January points to consumers recovering from October Budget wobbles.
- Increasing mortgage approvals for house purchase signal a broad-based revival in buyer interest.
- But falling finance raised suggests business investment has been hit hard by uncertainty.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices rise again in February, but watch for a slowdown after April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
THE HOUSING MARKET REMAINS ROBUST...
- ...AND PRICES WILL RISE BY 4% IN 2025
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- High and rising global economic policy uncertainty has hit business investment hard.
- But consumer spending is recovering from an autumn wobble, so GDP growth can improve in 2025.
- Inflation will peak at 3.7% in September, allowing the MPC to cut only twice more this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
GROWTH HOLDS UP BETTER THAN SURVEYS IMPLY
- …THE MPC CAN CUT ONLY TWICE MORE THIS YEAR
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Higher interest repayments and lower tax receipts will increase forecast government borrowing.
- We estimate that the Chancellor’s £8.9B headroom against her fiscal rules has been wiped out.
- We expect the Chancellor to respond on March 26 with back-loaded public spending cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Retail sales volumes were trending up at a 2.2% monthly annualised rate until the October Budget.
- Falling UK-specific policy uncertainty has allowed retail spending to rebound from the autumn stumble.
- The BDO industry survey shows non-food retail sales rising at the fastest rate in two years.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Ofgem’s 6.4% hike to the utility price cap from April is 0.8pp higher than the MPC assumed.
- The news would boost the MPC’s inflation forecast by 3bp, leaving it unchanged to one decimal place.
- We continue to expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.5% in April and 3.7% in September.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Households say that now is almost as good a time to save as during the 2008 financial crisis.
- But we are not worried, because saving intentions have been a very poor consumer-spending indicator.
- Confidence in personal finances is solid, and major purchase intentions signal solid retail volumes growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Retail sales recover from pre-Budget worries, more gains lie ahead as wages rise solidly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Fiscal pressures pile on the Chancellor as revenues undershoot in January; it will only get worse from here.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Growth is weak but has bottomed while price pressures remain stubborn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strong wage growth and falling interest rates will keep supporting consumers’ confidence.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing orders tick up and price pressures fall in February, but the sector remains weak.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
