UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- UK business investment has flatlined for eight years, but an upturn seems to be underway.
- Firms are borrowing again as interest rates fall, and CFOs report the cost of credit is easing.
- Investment intentions signal 2.9% capex growth year-over-year in Q3.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Government borrowing overshoots OBR forecast again, Ms. Reeves will raise planned taxes, spending and borrowing in her October 30 budget.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We estimate that looser fiscal policy in the October 30 Budget will boost GDP by 0.5% in 2025/26.
- As a result, the MPC will need to hold Bank Rate 25-to-50bp higher than it would otherwise.
- Rate-setters will keep cutting Bank Rate, but fiscal policy is one reason to expect only gradual cuts.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We expect the Chancellor to raise government investment by £24B in 2028/29 in the Budget.
- Ms. Reeves will change the fiscal rules to allow more borrowing to fund the extra investment.
- We expect the Chancellor to target public sector net liabilities falling relative to GDP.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Retail sales defy the rain to rise in September.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Surprisingly strong retail sales in September suggest consumers are shrugging off Budget uncertainty.
- Weather and unfavourable seasonals hit September sales, so the trend is better than the headlines.
- Real wage growth and interest rate cuts will help consumer spending support GDP growth in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The October 30 Budget will likely boost government spending more than taxes, raising growth.
- Tax hikes will pay for day-to-day spending, while Ms. Reeves will tweak her fiscal rule to boost investment.
- Markets will be unruffled, so gilt yields could fall as any additional sovereign risk premium unwinds.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices rebound strongly in August as rate cuts feed through.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Volatile air fares cut CPI services inflation and will rebound, but Governor Bailey will now look for “aggressive" cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Slowing wages make a November rate cut a slam dunk as the MPC will ignore dodgy job data.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Slowing wages make a November rate cut a slam dunk as the MPC will ignore dodgy job data.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The decline in CPI inflation in September likely leaves Governor Bailey primed for “aggressive” rate cuts.
- But the fall in services inflation was exaggerated by volatile airfares; the MPC likely will look through this.
- We still expect the MPC to cut rates quarterly, but a consecutive cut in December is a close call now.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The official labour-market data tell a comforting story of improving labour supply and falling wage growth.
- But the LFS data are too unreliable to take seriously, and AWE seems to exaggerate the slowdown in pay.
- The MPC has enough to cut rates in November, but the data fog will restrict easing to once per quarter.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect a stimulatory Budget from Chancellor Rachel Reeves on October 30.
- A growth-boosting Budget should limit the MPC to cutting interest rates only once per quarter.
- Markets will be unruffled by a modest change to Ms. Reeves’ fiscal rules, so gilt yields could fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The headline trade deficit narrows because of erratics and metals.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:August’s GDP rebound underwhelmed, cutting our Q3 growth forecast to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- GDP grew 0.2% month-to-month in August as erratic drags on July output unwound.
- Downward revisions to earlier months, however, cut our Q3 GDP forecast to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- That leaves a November MPC rate cut as a racing certainty, even though growth should rebound in Q4.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation surges after MPC rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Disposable income surged 2.8% in H1 2024, but consumer spending rose only 0.8%.
- We expect the resulting jump in the saving rate to reverse through 2025, supporting consumption.
- Disposable income growth will slow, but remain solid at 1.3% year-over-year in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We think the recent surge in gilt yields reflects stronger US data and inflation risks.
- A change to the fiscal rules will likely result in more borrowing in the upcoming Budget on October 30…
- ...but that likely had only a modest effect on market pricing, with little change in sovereign risk premia.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
