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Post-Thanksgiving volatility probably drove the jump in initial claims.
Low initial claims still consistent with rising unemployment, given very muted hiring.
Import stockpiling likely to resume; equipment investment probably weak again in Q4.
Pick-up in continuing claims consistent with a further slowing in hiring.
The softening in the labor market remains very gradual.
Weak October payrolls were only partly due to strikes and storms.
Hit to payrolls from Milton likely was limited.
Larger deficit driven by stockpiling in preparation for the port strikes.
Boost from Milton underwhelms, while claims elsewhere drop back.
Helene and strikes obscure the underlying trend.
Boosted marginally by Boeing; expect a further uplift from Hurricane Helene ahead.
Net trade probably only a small drag on headline growth in Q3.
Underlying equipment investment is still weak, but computers and aircraft are red hot.
Drag from trade on Q3 GDP growth likely to be offset elsewhere.
The rising trend has flattened off; expect a run of lower numbers this fall.
Ignore the headline, the underlying trend is very weak.
Clearer signs that services sector employment is rolling over.
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