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PCE components rose rapidly; on course for a 0.30% core PCE increase
Pick-up probably election-related; spending growth unlikely to keep strengthening.
PPI and CPI data suggest the August core PCE rose by about 0.14%, sustaining the slowdown.
Don’t panic, it's noise not signal; the core PCE probably rose by about 0.22%.
Undershooting the Fed’s June core PCE forecast for the third straight month.
Drag from trade on Q3 GDP growth likely to be offset elsewhere.
Ignore the headline, the underlying trend is very weak.
Expect a small rise in H2 sales, but the weakening labor market will constrain activity.
A weather-related plunge in July, but residential construction set for a weak Q3.
The underlying trend still looks flat; expect continued stagnation ahead.
Headline index surges, but the details still point to weakness.
Meagre growth in unit labor costs supports the case for policy easing.
The PMI is probably a poor guide to the national picture.
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