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Underlying claims have plateaued, and will probably slip back in the near term.
Weekly data are noisy; the underlying trend is still deteriorating.
Underlying claims rising only slowly for now, but expect a faster deterioration ahead.
Meagre growth in unit labor costs supports the case for policy easing.
The underlying trend in equipment investment looks weak, despite the bumper Q2 headline.
Hit to Q2 GDP growth from net trade probably offset by inventories and investment.
Claims boosted by auto plant shutdowns and Hurricane Beryl, but the underlying trend is rising.
Layoffs still trending higher, but the data will be noisy over the coming weeks.
Net trade and equipment investment both set to drag on Q2 growth.
Probably depressed marginally by Juneteenth; the trend remains upwards.
GDP details better than the headline, but growth is slowing.
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