US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- The slowdown in consumption this year has been sharpest in areas dominated by higher earners...
- ...Slower asset price gains and expected real wage declines have weighed more than tax hike risk.
- Mortgage applications have risen sharply; people are fed up waiting for mortgage rates to fall.
Committee is more clearly split; weaker labor market to tip the balance by September.
- President Trump’s policies will slow the flow of immigration into the US, but not halt it entirely.
- The idea that a big migrant exodus from the labor market is already underway is at odds with the data.
- We continue to think labor demand will grow more slowly than supply, lifting the unemployment rate.
Plunging response rate raises big questions about reliability.
- Adobe's Digital Price Index suggests some goods prices rose in June at the fastest pace since 2023.
- Primary rent probably rose at an above-trend pace in June, while airline fares likely stopped falling.
- Residual seasonality continues to blight the services price data; expect a bigger rise in June than in May.
- Exemptions and sector-specific tariffs cover most imports from Japan, leaving the “reciprocal” rate irrelevant.
- Raising the reciprocal rate of EU imports to 50% would boost the US CPI by nearly 1/2%, but a deal is likely.
- The NY Fed survey continues to paint a far more upbeat picture than the other major consumer surveys.
- Capex rose in 2017-to-18 after the introduction of 100% bonus depreciation, but it was not the key driver.
- Tapering bonus depreciation in 2023 and 2024 left capex unscathed; firms are now worried about tariffs.
- Average hourly earnings growth is often volatile, but the recent slowdown has been flagged by surveys too.
- June private payrolls ex-education and healthcare rose just 23K; revisions will reveal an even weaker picture.
- Hiring intentions remain depressed; new tax breaks are unlikely to offset tariff costs and uncertainty soon.
- The drop in unemployment looks like noise; payroll growth will undershoot the break-even rate in H2.
A big jump in services inflation still looks unlikely.
Implausible sector breakdown highlights ADP's uselessness.
Supply-side disruptions giving way to weak demand.
- The average effective tariff rate will rise by a further 6pp next week, if no new trade deals are signed.
- But we doubt these additional tariffs will last; retaliation by trade partners will spur another climbdown.
- The construction slump signals weaker growth in activity and employment, but likely not a recession
- Rising JOLTS job openings are driven by hospitality firms rehiring to comply with employment laws...
- ...Measurement problems also boosting the numbers; large downward revisions are now common.
- Tariff revenues currently equal 10% of the value of imports, but the effective tariff rate likely is higher.
- The abundance of weak surveys points to a 100K first estimate for June payrolls.
- Downward revisions to estimated payrolls in April and May also are likely.
- Scraps of evidence suggest late responses from struggling small businesses explains the pattern.
- Spending fell by 0.3% in May, with little chance of a June rebound, and further weakness likely in Q3.
- The 0.4% fall in May incomes was due to one-time factors, but real income growth is set to stagnate.
- The core PCE deflator surprised to the upside in May, but the 0.18% rise will pale in comparison to June.
GDP on course for a misleading jump in Q2.
IMay slump brings sales back to reality.
- We look for a below-consensus 0.2% decline in real expenditure in May...
- ...One-time factors likely drove the drop, but the Q3 outlook for real after-tax income growth is bleak.
- 3% GDP growth looks likely in Q2, as the unwinding of tariff distortions obscures underlying weakness.
Inflation expectations dropping back, labor market still weakening.
- Mr. Powell refrained from providing lawmakers with triggers and timings for the intended policy easing in H2...
- ...But 2024’s small upside unemployment surprise drove a rapid pivot; expect a repeat, despite the tariffs.
- GDPNow’s 3.4% projection for Q2 growth looks about right; underlying momentum is about half that figure.
