US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- Output per hour rose an impressive 2.3% in 2024; surveys point to higher IT spending by firms in 2025.
- AI spending, however, poses near-term downside risks to employment and more disinflation pressure.
- Mixed signals on federal spending so far, but DOGE likely will drag slightly on demand and employment.
Samuel TombsUS
Labor demand still deteriorating, amid tight monetary policy and elevated uncertainty.
Samuel TombsUS
- March 2024 payrolls likely will be revised down by about 670K after benchmarking to UI records...
- ...The birth-death model’s contribution to payroll growth since then probably will be revised down too.
- We see some evidence of tariff “front-running” in December trade data; expect a lot more to come.
Samuel TombsUS
- Job openings are still trending down; catch-up growth in healthcare hiring is fizzling out.
- JOLTS net hiring in December was more muted than payroll growth; January jobs will probably disappoint.
- Auto sales likely were hit by bad weather in January: pre-tariff purchases probably have further left to run.
Samuel TombsUS
Pre-tariff upturn probably will be fleeting.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We look for a 125K increase in January payrolls, well below the 170K consensus.
- Survey indicators present an incoherent picture, but unusually cold weather likely hit employment.
- The small fall in continuing claims points to a stable unemployment rate, but the risks are to the upside.
Samuel TombsUS
A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable.
Samuel TombsUS
A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The case for softer services inflation remains intact.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The tariffs imposed by Mr. Trump will lift consumer prices by 0.6%, if they are maintained.
- Recent strong growth in consumption can be largely attributed to preemptive purchases of imports.
- A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable; expect sub-2% GDP growth soon, as consumption growth slows.
Samuel TombsUS
Tariff front-running prompts a surge in consumption; capex hit by Boeing strike.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Continuing claims consistent with flat unemployment in January.
Samuel TombsUS
Net trade and inventories likely dragged heavily on Q4 GDP growth.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- GDP rose by 2.3% in Q4, and measures of underlying momentum were even stronger...
- ...But growth is now extremely dependent on consumption, which likely will slow markedly from here.
- Expect a modest 0.8% rise in the Q4 ECI today, and smaller increases over coming quarters.
Samuel TombsUS
Aircraft likely drove a plunge in equipment investment in Q4.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Chair Powell said revisions to the FOMC’s statement were “not meant to send a signal”.
- We’re revising our Q4 GDP growth forecast to 1.5%, from 2.0%, due to weak trade and inventories data.
- Federal government payrolls could easily drop by between 100K and 200K by October.
Samuel TombsUS
- We think GDP rose by around 2% in Q4, driven mainly by another strong increase in consumption.
- Tariffs muddy the waters, but we expect growth to be much weaker this year than in 2024.
- The FOMC is unlikely to signal less easing after only one month’s better than expected labor market data.
Samuel TombsUS
New home sales likely to tread water at best.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- People are using credit, despite its high cost, to bring forward big-ticket purchases to avoid tariffs.
- Credit cards supported spending growth by 0.2pp in Q4; expect a similar boost in Q1, then a hefty drag.
- Business investment probably will continue to stagnate over the next few quarters.
Samuel TombsUS
