- The small recent rise in continuing claims suggests July’s unemployment rate was overestimated.
- We are pencilling in a 0.1pp dip in the rate to 4.2% in August, despite the worsening trend.
- The rapid 2.9% growth in consumers’ spending in Q2 looks unsustainable; expect a sharp slowdown.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- We look for little change in in initial jobless claims today, and a run of lower numbers this fall…
- …Leading indicators have improved and the seasonals will help; but lower hiring will slow job gains.
- The hit to growth from the rising trade deficit will be offset by boosts from inventories and investment.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Consumers unlikely to remain so upbeat.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We look for a 0.13% rise in the July core PCE deflator, implying downside risk to the 0.2% consensus.
- Real consumption probably rose by 0.3% in July, setting up a strong base for growth in Q3…
- …But we expect a slowdown ahead, due to weak income growth and rising the saving rate.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Ignore the headline, the underlying trend is very weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Ignore the near-10% surge in headline durable goods orders in July; the details were weak…
- …Real core capital goods shipments fell by 0.5%, pointing to falling equipment investment in Q3.
- A hit to sentiment among Republicans probably weighed on overall consumer confidence in August.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
New home sales unlikely to keep rising.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech foreshadows a rapid easing of policy in the coming months.
- Headline durable goods orders likely jumped in July, but the details will be far less impressive.
- New home sales reportedly surged last month, but are unlikely to keep on climbing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Expect a small rise in H2 sales, but the weakening labor market will constrain activity.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Clearer signs that services sector employment is rolling over.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Underlying claims have plateaued, and will probably slip back in the near term.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Chair Powell probably will indicate at Jackson Hole that multiple rate cuts are likely this year.
- The S&P Global composite PMI has joined the raft of indicators pointing to weaker hiring.
- Existing home sales rebounded in July, but a sustained near-term recovery is unlikely.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The only question for September is the size of the Fed move; we still expect 25bp, but hope for 50.
- The downward revision to March payrolls is big, but this tells us very little about the near-term outlook.
- Existing home sales probably bounced in July, but are unlikely to climb much further in Q3.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Leading indicators suggest that the upturn in initial claims in recent months is petering out.
- But the slowdown in employment growth will likely continue, as companies continue to reduce hiring.
- Benchmark payroll revisions are unforecastable, but have been small in recent years.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Our Homebase model points to a 250K jump in August private payrolls, which looks implausible.
- Other labor market indicators are far less upbeat; we have pencilled in an increase of 125K.
- We expect a meagre rise in government payrolls this month, and see a sharp slowdown ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
A weather-related plunge in July, but residential construction set for a weak Q3.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- July’s drop in single-family starts was concentrated in the South, probably a hit from Hurricane Beryl...
- ..Still, the overhang of new home inventory points to a downturn in residential construction.
- Consumers’ confidence has picked up despite the stock market dip, pointing to solid spending growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Lower mortgage rates came too late for this month's survey.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Consumers keep spending, despite deteriorating fundamentals.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Weekly data are noisy; the underlying trend is still deteriorating.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
