Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- We think GDP grew by 3.5% in Q3, underpinned by another solid increase in consumers’ spending.
- But growth probably will slow sharply over the next few quarters, as households start to tire.
- The core PCE deflator likely rose by just 2.0%, and underlying inflation is set to remain in check.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Non-core inflation surged in October, highlighting temporary drivers are impacting Mexico’s CPI.
- Stable core inflation amid weak demand suggests a dovish approach to Banxico’s future rate cuts.
- MXN sell-off risks and global trade uncertainty challenge inflation management strategies ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Japan’s incumbent LDP failed to secure a majority in the lower house in Sunday’s election.
- China’s industrial profits plunged in September due to torpid domestic demand and producer deflation.
- All eyes are on the NPCSC meeting, scheduled for after the US election, for details of fiscal stimulus.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Donald Trump has threatened a 10% tariff on goods imported to the US, if he becomes president.
- Our analysis suggests the hit to EZ GDP from a blanket 10% tariff would be limited…
- ...The GDP hit would be smaller if the EU retaliates but bigger if a US-China trade war escalates.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The number of company insolvencies is high, but insolvency rates are only a little elevated.
- Rising energy and food costs boosted insolvencies post-Covid; both shocks fading is easing distress.
- Insolvencies will keep falling as the economy grows and borrowing costs decrease.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
SLOWLY EASING INFLATION AND A LOOSER BUDGET...
- …THE MPC WILL CUT RATES ONCE PER QUARTER
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- - CHINA FINALLY TAKES ACTION, BUT IS IT ENOUGH?
- - BOJ’S DECISION COMPLICATED BY POLITICAL RISKS
- - BOK SHIFTS INTO RATE-CUTTING MODE
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: CBI rebounds in October but still signals a weak manufacturing sector as Budget uncertainty takes a toll.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence falls on Budget, clarity on October 30 will help sentiment recover.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI signals slowing growth and stubborn services inflation.
Samuel TombsUK
Underlying investment demand is still weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Supporting our view Germany will avoid recession this year but pointing to downside risks in Italy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We look for a 100K rise in October non-farm payrolls; surveys show the trend in private payrolls is slowing.
- Strikes likely cut payrolls by about 40K; the hit from Hurricane Milton is less certain, but 25K is plausible.
- Homebase data show employment in Florida was lower than usual throughout the week.
Samuel TombsUS
- Bad weather and energy prices are driving inflation in Brazil and Mexico, challenging policymakers.
- Weather-related shocks in Brazil are notably contributing to its economic deterioration.
- COPOM will address these challenges, but further tightening may not improve the inflation outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The minutes of the RBI’s October meeting suggest a possible pathway to a 4-to-2 cut in December.
- Core IP growth should bounce modestly in September, but largely on a base-effect technicality.
- Taiwanese GDP growth likely slowed further in Q3, to 3.4%, as support from domestic demand wanes.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoJ is likely to hold rates steady until January, given growth trends and Friday’s inflation data...
- ...But political and currency risks loom large; a sharp JPY depreciation would force an earlier move.
- China’s NPC will meet on November 4-to-8 and is likely to approve targeted additional fiscal stimulus.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Money supply and lending growth picked up further at the end of Q3, a good sign for EZ GDP growth.
- ECB surveyed inflation expectations dropped in September but will likely rebound in Q4.
- The IFO survey in Germany improved marginally in October, but the IESI in Italy stumbled.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Rachel Reeves’ loosening of fiscal rules will likely mean £24B per year more borrowing for investment.
- Markets will likely still see the new fiscal rules as credible, avoiding a ‘Liz Truss’ moment...
- ...as Chancellor Reeves’ focus on the current budget deficit shows commitment to sustainable policy.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
