- The low rate of Philippine unemployment has been range-bound for over a year, but red flags are rising.
- The respectable rate of sales growth could soon turn, as the PHP boost to remittances fades away.
- The February slip in Thai inflation was a base-effect story, but sub-1% prints are still around the corner.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Domestic demand drove growth in the Eurozone in the second half of 2024; can it continue?
- Inventories and net trade will be important swing factors for growth in the first half of 2025.
- Our new forecasts put us well above the ECB; trade policy uncertainty is the dark horse.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- UK economic uncertainty has decoupled from soaring worries in the US.
- Consumer spending in the UK can recover, with uncertainty only modestly elevated.
- The PMI exaggerates weakness; the DMP shows jobs stalling rather than falling, and inflation rising.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Challenger data point to a big rise in claims this spring.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Widespread uncertainty and weak demand pummel the PMI, but it should recover gradually.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Job growth holds up and disinflation is over.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Not the start to Q1 we’d hoped for. .
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Construction downturn intensifies midway through Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Finally seeing signs of US front-loading in Vietnamese exports, Tet noise aside
Ignore the official slip, sales growth strengthened in February
Food inflation noesdives with the help of residual Tet noise
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Providing some reassurance on service sector activity.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Why use a broken compass when you have GPS?
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Catastrophic jobs balance exaggerates economic weakness, but risks to our growth forecast are firmly down.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Italian growth fared better than previously thought in Q4, and should now pick up.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Easing borrowing costs drive car registrations higher in February.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
