In one line: Down, in line with our call that French GDP will slow again in Q4 after an Olympics boost in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Down, in line with our call that French GDP will slow again in Q4 after an Olympics boost in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Flash manufacturing PMI shows weakening demand across the board
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's flash composite PMI emits warning signal
Flash manufacturing PMI reports weakening demand across the board
Services sector activity cools dramatically
Duncan WrigleyChina+
India’s PMIs start Q4 on a cautiously better note, after the September carnage
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The IGAE reveals the Mexican economy is slowing, with volatility in agricultural and industrial sectors.
- Consumer confidence is declining as households worry about prospects and job-market weakness.
- The manufacturing sector contracted further, driven by demand retrenchment and external pressures.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Weakness due to high mortgage rates, not hurricanes or the approaching elections.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Weakening, due mainly to tighter financial conditions and elevated uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- India’s flash PMIs for October show a bounce in both surveys from the painful September plunge.
- The moderating trend from the Q1 highs is still intact, though; the same is true for leading gauges.
- Both surveys suggest that hiring is going gang-busters, but we aren’t moved, looking at the EPFO.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s October flash PMIs point to a rocky start to Q4, with a broad fading of activity.
- Manufacturers were slammed by sinking export orders, while services activity slowed sharply.
- The BoJ should stay put this month, and likely in December; but the weak yen raises rate-hike risk.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Expect an aircraft-driven plunge in durable goods orders in September, but some core weakness too.
- Demand for investment equipment was soft in Q3, outside the aircraft and computer components.
- The latest jobless claims data offer mixed messages on October payrolls, but we expect a weak print.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The retail sales decline in Mexico signals economic strain, prompting urgent need for interest rate cuts.
- Rising remittances provide temporary relief, yet worries are growing amid political uncertainty.
- Key sectors are struggling as consumer sentiment deteriorates, highlighting challenges for the recovery.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The EZ PMI barely budged in October and is consistent with slower GDP growth in Q4…
- ...But we think growth will remain solid despite agreeing with the PMI about a slowdown in France.
- Markets are trying to pull the ECB towards a 50bp rate cut in December; we still see 25bp.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The composite PMI fell to an 11-month low, as Budget uncertainty hit firms.
- The forward-looking balances suggest that the PMI will rebound in November.
- The PMI indicates that inflation is stubborn and firms expanded margins more quickly in October.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
A SECOND BOT CUT IN DECEMBER IS TOUCH-AND-GO
- …THE RBI TURNS ‘NEUTRAL’; ALL EYES ON Q3 GDP
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Under pressure, as agriculture and industrial production weaken.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Under pressure, as agriculture and industrial production weaken.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
