Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 25 February 2025: Governor Rhee signals more rate cuts

Governor Rhee signals one or two additional rate cuts this year after BoK's easing move today

Duncan WrigleyChina+

26 February 2025 Global Monitor A grand coalition in Germany? We think so.

US - How seriously should we take the PMI’s slowdown signal?
EUROZONE - The establishment in Germany wins one last chance to get it right
UK - Increased NICs will be manageable for firms and consumers
CHINA+ - Policy support driving China’s credit growth; property loans cool
EM ASIA - Not long until BI eases again, especially given Prabowo’s cuts
LATAM - Mexico’s economic outlook worsens amid external and domestic risks

ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

26 February 2025 US Monitor The manufacturing recovery priced-in by markets is unlikely to arrive

Industrial stocks have discounted the recovery in manufacturing suggested by recent surveys...
...But we think this apparent upturn reflects a rush of pre-tariff activity that will be short-lived.
February’s Conference Board survey provided more evidence of consumer gloom.

Samuel TombsUS

26 February 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's inflation spikes on electricity tariffs but will stabilise soon

Inflation in Brazil rose less than expected in February, despite a spike in electricity tariffs.
Weakening domestic demand will keep inflation pressures in check, but a range of issues remain.
Mexico’s external accounts are under control, but both external and domestic issues cloud the outlook.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

26 February 2025 China+ Monitor BoK seizes opportunity to cut rates amid KRW calm before tariff storm

The Bank of Korea cut rates yesterday, as widely expected in the market, given currency stability.
Anther two cuts are likely, though we see a rising case for three, given domestic political and trade-war risks.
China’s bond yield uptick likely reflects improved sentiment, but that rests on fragile ground.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

26 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor What to make of wild swings in German inventories and net trade?

Huge volatility under the hood of German Q4 GDP; inventories and net trade are key for H1.
We see full-year 2025 growth of 0.5% in Germany, lower than previously but above consensus.
EZ negotiated wage growth retreated in Q4, after the one-off-related jump in Q3; further falls are likely

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 February 2025 UK Monitor Higher utility prices will help drive inflation to 3.7% in September

Ofgem’s 6.4% hike to the utility price cap from April is 0.8pp higher than the MPC assumed.
The news would boost the MPC’s inflation forecast by 3bp, leaving it unchanged to one decimal place.
We continue to expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.5% in April and 3.7% in September.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: Bi-weekly CPI, Mexico, February, 2025

In one line: Underlying inflation pressures remain under control.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

25 February 2025 US Monitor How hard will DOGE hit the labor market, and when?

The total federal government payroll probably is on course to be around 200K smaller by October.
Lost incomes and greater uncertainty point to a bigger 300K total hit to aggregate payroll growth.
Monetary policy still is meaningfully restrictive, despite the pick-up in M2 growth.

Samuel TombsUS

25 February 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexico's inflation subdued, but trade risks are looming

Core inflation is under control, allowing Banxico to eye a 50bp rate cut, but trade tensions loom.
The benign February inflation report reinforces the dovish stance, yet US tariffs could cloud the outlook.
In Argentina, Mr. Milei’s austerity is keeping the fiscal recovery on track, but trade tensions are rising.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

25 February 2025 China+ Monitor Korean export outlook still based on AI-chip shipments

Korean exports slowed in February, except to Asia ex-China manufacturing hubs.
Auto exports benefited from front-loading ahead of a likely US auto tariff hike; chip exports should rebound.
President Trump’s investment restriction memo is a bargaining chip ahead of trade talks with China.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

25 February 2025 Eurozone Monitor The establishment in Germany wins one last chance to get it right

The failure of FDP and BSW to reach 5% paves the way for a CDU/CSU and SPD coalition in Germany.
Germany’s new government has its work cut out; fiscal reform and defence are at the top of the list.
EZ inflation rose in January, but a sharp fall in energy inflation will pull the headline down in February.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 February 2025 UK Monitor Three reasons the outlook is better than GfK's saving balance indicates

Households say that now is almost as good a time to save as during the 2008 financial crisis.
But we are not worried, because saving intentions have been a very poor consumer-spending indicator.
Confidence in personal finances is solid, and major purchase intentions signal solid retail volumes growth.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK