Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, September 2024

  • In one line: The PMI surges as lower borrowing costs and optimism boost activity.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, September 2024

  • In one line: 

    Private sales fall again on an annual basis, but consumer confidence still points to an upturn.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, August 2024

In one line:  Q3 will be better than expected for French industry. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 4 October 2024

Below-target range inflation effectively guarantees another BSP cut this month

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, September

Still consistent with further falls in services inflation.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

UK Datanote: Bank of England Decision Maker Panel, September 2024

  • In one line: Recruitment difficulties ease but inflation and wage growth prove stubbornly elevated.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, September 2024

  • In one line: The PMI falls, but it will rebound after the Budget.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, September 28

Boosted marginally by Boeing; expect a further uplift from Hurricane Helene ahead.

Samuel TombsUS

Global Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, September

In one line: Likely to fall further this month but also likely overdoing the weakness in the economy.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, September 2024

In one line: Likely to fall further this month but also likely overdoing the weakness in the economy.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 October 2024 US Monitor Soft payrolls and low jobless claims can co-exist, if hiring is weak enough

  • Payrolls likely rose by only 135K in September, constrained by slow private and government hiring.
  • Initial claims have been distorted by iffy seasonals; unemployment won’t track the drop in continuing claims.
  • October private job growth will be close to zero, if strikes at Boeing and the ports continue next week.

Samuel TombsUS

4 October 2024 LatAm Monitor Industrial activity struggles in Brazil; tight financial conditions a threat

  • Brazil’s industrial output inches up in August, highlighting ongoing economic challenges.
  • Moody’s upgrades Brazil’s credit rating, boosting confidence in economic reforms.
  • Peru’s inflation rate drops to 1.8%, paving the way for further interest rate cuts.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

4 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor Swiss inflation falls below 1% and has further to slide

  • Swiss inflation fell below 1% in September for the first time since 2021. 
  • Inflation averaged 1.1% in Q3, in line with the SNB’s call, but will fall further than the Bank expects in Q4. 
  • The door is wide open for further rate cuts; the SNB could take its key policy rate close to zero.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 October 2024 UK Monitor The PMI falls, but it will rebound after the Budget

  • The PMI fell in September as firms paused work in anticipation of the upcoming budget.
  • It is still signalling quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.4%, however.
  • BoE Governor Bailey’s talk of ‘aggressive’ rate cuts leaves us close to adding a December reduction.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, September

Indicators with a better track record paint a much weaker picture.

Samuel TombsUS

3 October 2024 US Monitor Claims likely edged up last week; Helene will drive a bigger rise soon

  • We look for a small rise in initial claims to about 225K, from 218K, driven by rolling furloughs at Boeing.
  • Storm Helene likely will lift claims to about 250K soon; port-related disruption may add to the pick up.
  • The end of the student loan payment “on-ramp” will only hit annual consumption by 0.15% at most. 

Samuel TombsUS

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