Indicators with a better track record paint a much weaker picture.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: A modest recovery but downside risks persist.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The Eurozone unemployment rate held at 6.4% in September and is likely to remain steady for now.
- The ECB also sees a broadly unchanged unemployment rate over the coming quarters.
- A still-tight labour market will prevent neither a slowdown in wage growth nor more ECB easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in August, as retail sales grow and doctors’ strikes end.
- Manufacturing output should also rebound from erratic weakness in July.
- We look for Q3 growth of 0.3% quarter-to-quarter, but GDP revisions pose a downside risk.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Plunge in Korean manufacturing PMI raises the likelihood of earlier BoK cut
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Colombia’s BanRep cut interest rates again, signalling continued easing amid falling inflation.
- The Board adopted a more dovish stance, paving the way for an accelerated normalisation, if needed.
- Chile’s IMACEC index is sending mixed signals;mining shows signs of life but services struggle.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The MPC will cut gradually, next in November and then in February.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Still depressed; core goods prices likely to keep falling.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: The PMI dips in September on Budget uncertainty, but output growth remains strong.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Fall in core confirmed & headline below the ECB’s target; October’s rate cut is a go
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Fall in core confirmed & headline below the ECB’s target; October’s rate cut is a go
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Recession in EZ industry rumbles on.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Recession in EZ industry rumbles on.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Japanese manufacturers' sentiment is steady
Korean underlying export growth remains strong
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Much more food disinflation ahead.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Export-oriented manufacturers hit a speed-bump at the end of Q3.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Export-oriented manufacturers in ASEAN hit a speed-bump at the end of Q3
Much more food disinflation ahead in Indonesia
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
